October 3, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
On-farm stocks of wheat were estimated at 33% of the U.S. total September 1st and 170 million bushels more than a year ago. Historically, that's a very large share in producer hands which also means wheat inventories in commercial hands is the smallest in over 15 years. Read More...

October 2, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA's quarterly grain and soy stocks and final wheat production had multiple surprises , some of record proportions. Tighter grain supplies will trigger major demand revisions in USDA's October 12 supply and demand forecast. Read More...

September 29, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
The after-the-close quarterly Hogs and Pigs report shoulld lend some support to hog futures that have closed lower 7 consecutive days. Read More...

September 28, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
It started like most recent days; rising interest rates and stronger dollar. And then the unexpected happened. Read More...

September 27, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Weak rallies and recoveries struggled to maintain early strength with a number of markets closing unchanged to lower. Funds find themselves with sizeable long positions in economically sensitive markets adding to the selling pressure. Read More...

September 26, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Today is only charts with a few brief comments. Dollar strength and rising interest rates team up to pressure financial assets. Read More...

September 24, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Bullish sentiment is in retreat in most everything except the Dollar Index. The number of markets at or near extreme sentiment is high indicating counter-trend market moves are the most likely in the near term. Read More...

September 22, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Friday's after-the-close cattle on feed report may be setting up a repeat of last month's price action when it triggered a sell-off into month-end. Read More...

September 21, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Interest rates may stay higher for longer, Putin wants to mobilize and escalate the war as Russians flee the country, and the wheat market doesn't know which way to turn pending further developments. Read More...

September 20, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
More market-moving headlines from Russia indicating intent to scale-up the 'military operation' to full war mobilization under the guise of an orchestrated referendum vote in 4 regions of eastern Ukraine. Putin to make a statement while I sleep tonight. Read More...

September 19, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Many of the interest-rate sensitive markets don't reflect the prevailing consensus fed-funds rates will be raised 75 basis points or more Wednesday. Have markets fully-priced the Fed's next move? Read More...

September 17, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
The push to sell soybeans in Argentina and concerns of drought and deteriorating wheat conditions kept the focus on Argentina last week, each likely to continue in the near-term. Read More...

September 15,2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA filled in the gaps on export sales of agricultural commodities with all but wheat showing sales lagging the same 4-week period last year. Corn especially is concerning, 50% below year ago sales at this time. Read More...

September 14, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Debate and angst over the use and function of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve continues. Its capacity limitations within the context of U.S. oil supply deem it a very small risk-mitigant in an energy crisis. Read More...

September 13, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Higher than expected CPI signaled this is no time for the Fed to take the foot off the rate-hike pedal. That inflation is still accelerating took 4% out of the stock market rally and enabled the Dollar to rebound. By comparison, commodities held better than expected. Read More...

September 12, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA scrambled the deck chairs with surprising acreages in corn and soybeans, higher acreage for cotton, and lower than expected yields in soybeans. As discussed last week, large supply reductions were accompanied by lower demand forecast(s) as supplies tighten to years-long lows. Read More...

September 10, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
I take a broader view of the influences that may be setting up to provide support to commodities and stocks. Read More...

September 8, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
If U.S. corn production is reduced as much as most estimates expect, USDA will need to offset much of the decline in supply by shaving demand forecasts. It should not be hard to justify demand revisions based on recent trends. Read More...

September 7, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Commodities had broad-based pullbacks with most turning early gains into losses on the day by the close. Read More...

September 6, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
The 'glitch' in USDA's weekly export sales report has left a void of important information but is not without precedent nor is it as severe as 2 previous periods when government data "went dark". Read More...

September 3, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Speculative risk-appetite has returned to commodities following a lengthy period of de-risking. Commercial hedgers, previously the dominant buyers, have provided the selling recently. Read More...

August 25, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Grain and soy are still higher on the week but failures to punch through resistance triggered some corrections that have shaved the gains. Read More...

August 24, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Refining margins for diesel are through the roof even as demand for gasoline and gasoline refining margins decline. Look for higher diesel prices at the pump after the past 2 month's decline. Read More...

August 23, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
It was a broad-based commodity rally that may have been triggered by a correction in the very strong Dollar. But a number of commodities pulled back from intra-day highs after hitting resistance sending mixed signals whether today's rally is sustainable. Read More...

August 22,2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
It's probably not pure coincidence dry-bulk ocean freight for grain and oilseeds is weak at a time when demand for U.S. cargo is the least at this time since the trade war of 2019. Read More...

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