May 21, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Nobody complained about a dull, uneventful week last week. How markets began the week hardly resemble how they ended, a reminder that extreme sentiment is an important leading contrary-indicator of market behavior. Read More...

May 19 ,2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
With Kansas wheat yields and production, according to the WQC tour, near USDA's estimate; there was little 'new' information for wheat today. I expand on the comment earlier today regarding grain sorghum export sales and demand. Read More...

May 18, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
The value of 2023 hard red winter wheat futures, outright and relative to corn, is a clear outlier by comparison to anything seen in the past 15 years. In less than 5 months, most winter wheat producers will be faced with decisions about acreage and alternative crops. Will the outlier be enough to trigger a material increase in acreage? Read More...

May 17,2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
The 2012/2013 crop year proved to have disappointing corn yields resulting in major revisions to supply and demand over just a 5 month period. In tight-supply years, price will ration demand such that domestic needs are the priority. The wheat market may already be anticipating a similar scenario for 2022/2023. Read More...

May 16, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Rather than concerns of domestic food security as India used to justify export restrictions, I see it more as India's attempt to regain control over domestic wheat trade. Domestic prices are above the minimum prices set by the government the first time in many years pitting domestic traders in competition with the government. Read More...

May 14, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
If it could go wrong for wheat, it has this year. On the heels of USDA's aggressive stance on abandoned wheat acreage, India's government announced overnight a ban on wheat exports. Well, a ban with a few caveats. Read More...

May 12, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
We now have USDA's first attempt at forecasting crop year 2022/2023 and the only certainty is there will be plenty of changes before that crop year ends and, yes, more surprises. Read More...

May 11,2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
On the eve of USDA's first look at the 2022/2023 crop year forecast, I illustrate chart patterns similar to current markets from past years. Read More...

May 10, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Gross margins on refining oil into products are at record levels adding the upward pressure on retail diesel and gasoline with U.S. distillate supplies at extremely low levels. But margins at the retail level, especially on diesel, compounds the sticker-price shock. Read More...

May 9, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
One might say today's newsletter is the anatomy of markets when they break long-term trend support. Read More...

May 7, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Last week was full of market-variety with wheat leading the strength while other crops, their by-products, and livestock faltered. The week ahead includes Thursday's first look at the 2022/2023 forecast from USDA. Read More...

May 5, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Poor conditions in Oklahoma combined with disappointing rain in major parts of Kansas wheat country put the spotlight directly on hard red winter wheat futures today, outperforming all classes of wheat. Read More...

May 4, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
24 hours ago we illustrated winter wheat markets at risk of breaking down. They appeared to be saved, if only temporarily, by a dubious report from India, later denied. Read More...

May 3, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Although corn has traded poorly the past two days, winter wheat is the crop most at risk of a trend change currently. Read More...

May 2, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
The month begins with selling pressure in corn at the opening that ended with mediocre volume and an unconvincing close. Today's gap-openings should be respected because gaps are rare but this did not resemble a trend-changing pattern. Read More...

April 27, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
As prices for raw materials rise, the challenge for producers to cover costs is becoming harder. It's manifested in numerous ways including, in the case of livestock, herd reductions. Read More...

April 26, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Stats Can acreages had a number of surprises higher and lower than expectations. If normal growing conditions occur, there will be some very large year-over production numbers beneficial toward rebalancing supply. Read More...

April 25, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
The combined net long of the 'big 5' ag markets held by managed-money funds nearly matched the record of August 2012 last Tuesday. I've noticed near that level of risk has tended to be followed by market weakness featuring net selling by the funds. Increased futures margins may be another impediment to adding risk. Read More...

April 23, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Under pressure from domestic unrest over rising prices, Indonesia made the third policy change for palm oil in less than 3 months Friday resorting to a ban on all palm oil exports. Expect pressure from their importing customers and trading partners may result in a moderation of the policy sooner than later. Read More...

April 21, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Corn closed lower twice this week ensuring this will be the first time this month. Time will tell whether sentiment is changing but the market is reacting to negative news in ways not seen for awhile. Read More...

April 20, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Given the substantial change in the value of corn relative to soybeans since the March planting intentions, we analyzed past years for possible changes in acreage in 2022. Read More...

April 19, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Strength in commodities has hit Japan's currency especially hard considering the dependence of the third-largest global economy on imported commodities. Read More...

April 18, 20222 - Author: Ken Morrison
China pork production in Q1 was the highest since Q4 2018 but it was largely a result of herd liquidation in response to losses accumulating since May 2021 due to low pork values and high feed costs. Read More...

April 16, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Anticipation was high in early March that global buyers would turn to the U.S. for supplies as alternatives to Ukraine where Russia cut off port access. Six weeks later those expectations are mostly unfulfilled. Read More...

April 13, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Russia's attack on Ukraine sparked a wide interest among investors seeking exposure to grain. We do a deep dive into a couple of the investment vehicles retail investors are using. Read More...

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