August 18, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
The final 2 days of the week were filled with breaking news that moved markets and raised optimism. The question is will those catalysts remain supportive. Read More...

August 16, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
Confirmation that talks between China and the U.S. will resume gave renewed life to soybeans and other markets. Nearly identical to the same reaction on July 31, the technical set-up for soybeans is in a much better position now to sustain a rally if given a reason. Read More...

August 15,2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
The big moves in soybean prices and spreads preceded China's 'official' announcement of tariffs on U.S. soybeans. It's a good example how the market anticipates future events. Read More...

August 14, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
It's a good time for a periodic check on momentum indicators across a wide spectrum of the markets. Read More...

August 13, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
The relative value of corn vs. soybeans, if it remains as such, will most likely result in a significant increase in 2019 corn acreage and similar reduction in soybean acreage with important implications for U.S. supplies of each. Read More...

August 11,2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
Larger than expected U.S. corn and soybean yields and smaller than expected downside adjustments in global wheat put all crop markets on the defensive. Read More...

August 9,2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
Wheat is drawing unusually large attention in advance of USDA's forecast with battle lines drawn between those who see a sharply lower global crop and those who believe current supplies and displacement by alternatives in feed rations is less dire. Read More...

August 8,2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
As is usually our focus leading into USDA monthly reports, we consider the technical setup and money flows within the context of current prices and think about possible reactions to the upcoming information from USDA. Read More...

August 7, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
Based on the most recent 3-month's shipping data from the U.S. and Brazil, there are signs global soybean demand may be exceeding USDA's most recent forecast. Read More...

August 6, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
Charts illustrating seasonal price tendencies are most useful when the context influencing the trends is considered. Wheat prices have trended lower for most of the past 5 years but trends in global wheat production explain why this year may be different. Read More...

August 4, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA's yield and production estimates Friday could have important implications for prices and relative values between competing crops. Read More...

August 2,2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
Shades of August 2010 have been flashing in my head all week and a brief but strong surge in wheat today, fueled by a headline, left the wheat market with similar patterns as 8 years ago. Only time will tell if the outcome will be similar. Read More...

August 1, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
We illustrate the past 30-day price performance of 4 major wheat markets. U.S. is keeping pace with the global wheat rally; good news for producers but not such good news on re-gaining market share or attracting new demand. Read More...

July 31, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
The wheat market has recently been dominated by downward revisions in global production. This is counter to the trend over the past several years when final estimates have tended to exceed early-season forecasts. We look at the implications if USDA is aligned with the current trend in wheat supply. Read More...

July 30, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
In a different form and for different reasons, USDA aid to U.S. agriculture stemming from trade disruptions is nothing new. We take you back to the 1980 U.S. grain embargo of sales to the former Soviet Union and draw comparisons to current day. Read More...

July 28,2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
Understandably there's a lot of angst regarding the impact on U.S. soybean exports resulting from China's retaliatory tariffs. I make a case for an alternative scenario that may surprise you. Read More...

July 26, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
A number of markets stalled at resistance and closed poorly. We analyze if this may signal the end of the recent rallies or merely a rest-stop to digest gains. Read More...

July 25, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
Production concerns in most of the major global wheat exporters have fueled rallies in global wheat. Ironically, U.S. wheat has led the rally the past 5 days which is counter-productive to U.S. competitiveness. Read More...

July 24, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA rolled out the framework of the program promised to shield farmers and ranchers from the adverse impact of retaliatory tariffs. Details on implementation and other specifics won't be known until September. Read More...

July 23, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
Owing mainly to Chicken, meat protein supplies in cold storage topped 2.6 billion pounds in June. But the market may have been expecting even larger supplies of beef and pork so Tuesday's reaction by futures traders could build on today's modest rallies. Read More...

July 21, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
Most commodities put in a relief-rally performance last week that served mainly to stabilize or improve short-term momentum. It will take substantially more upside in most markets to improve intermediate momentum. Read More...

July 19, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
Monitoring export sales is one way to track the progress of demand for agricultural products. Crops for the most part are off to a better start relative to last year, wheat the exception. But sales progress at this early stage is not a reliable indicator of final demand. U.S. and global changes usually result in a number of forecast adjustments in the months ahead. Read More...

July 18, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
Today's Federal Reserve Beige Book from the 12 banking districts reinforce some of the themes recently in economic data. Read More...

July 17, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
Tariffs imposed by Mexico in retaliation on U.S. tariffs on Mexico's steel continue to weigh on Hog futures. Sales of U.S. pork to Mexico have slowed since end-May compared to year ago levels and sales of pork to non-Mexico destinations have not yet offset the loss of sales to the #1 destination for U.S. pork. Read More...

July 16, 2018 - Author: Ken Morrison
We consider the widening divergence of two important asset classes and the possible message it may be sending to market participants. Read More...

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