December 5, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Crop markets have struggled to sustain brief periods of strength even as soy finally turned the corner following a lengthy pullback. Read More...

December 4, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
I examine 10 markets analyzing the average front-month prices year-to-date with comparisons to the current front-month contract. There are useful lessons to be taken from the price trends that, for the most part, are consistent with those market's underlying fundamentals. Read More...

December 3, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Attributing the loss of U.S. export market share to weak South American currencies is overlooking the more relevant issue which is simply record exportable supplies. Read More...

December 2, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Soybean funds set a 1-week record net selling 56,000-contracts. But we see at least 3 reasons why soybeans may be ready for a modest recovery following 8 consecutive days of lower closes. Read More...

November 28, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Corn has followed the expiry-period pattern consistently and bullish sentiment has predictably declined. Scarcity of bullish sentiment is the first step necessary to stabilizing bear-markets. Read More...

November 26, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
With equities at a record high many wonder when commodities will have their day in the sun. I discuss the big differences in the 2 major commodity indexes and impediments that discourage investors from seeking exposure to commodities. Read More...

November 25, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
As grain approaches the first-delivery intentions and expiry of December contracts, we look at historical price behaviors in advance of contract expirys noting important current differences. Read More...

November 23, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Friday's cattle on feed report and beef in cold storage inventories were mostly in line with expectations but record pork in cold storage may get some attention when trade resumes. Weakness in wholesale beef and pork may indicate the market has reached a tipping point near-term. Read More...

November 21, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Algeria's interim government announced they will reduce wheat imports by at least 30% in efforts to fight corruption within Algeria's flour milling industry. Read More...

November 20, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Hog futures have been under pressure attributed to record pork production. With hog processing capacity running full, packer margins have benefited thanks in part to very strong wholesale pork demand. Read More...

November 19, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Following on to Monday's newsletter we examine the pace of U.S. corn and soybean export sales as a proportion of USDA's current full year forecasts. This approach reinforces previous conclusions. Read More...

November 18, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
With increasing focus and importance on demand, we review export sales progress 10 weeks into the crop year with comparisons to prior years. Read More...

November 16, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
As Brazil's soybean harvest approaches, the more difficult it will be for U.S. soybeans to compete to China and other important destinations. That is likely factoring into China's unwillingness to commit to a specific volume of trade with the U.S. , shifting leverage in the negotiations to China. Read More...

November 14, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Brazil committed to make permanent its pledge to WTO allowing up to 750,000 tons wheat imports annually tariff-free from areas outside the Mercosur region. It sounds good but is unlikely to trigger additional trade from North America unless wheat supplies in Mercosur are inadequate. Read More...

November 13, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Mixed signals have dogged the U.S.-China trade talks for 18 months so today's mid-day headlines of a 'snag' was viewed as more of the same. The past 30 days has revealed the two sides may be failing to listen and communicate. Read More...

November 12, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Cash basis-levels, futures spreads, and price are each tools and signals to encourage or discourage supply. We examine a few examples; some following the 'textbook', others not so much. Read More...

November 11, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
A recent survey taken in 2 of China's main hog production regions indicate some herd-rebuilding has begun as profits incentivize renewed growth. But record pork prices are also taking its toll on consumer pork demand. Read More...

November 10, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
It's abundantly clear crop prices have struggled to improve despite challenging weather that has limited yield potential. What's less well known is why prices appear stuck at or near the same levels of the past 4-5 years. I examine the global situations of 4 major crops illustrating why prices are struggling and why that may be the case for awhile. Read More...

November 7, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
We head into Friday's USDA estimate aware the trade has under-estimated corn and soybean yields vs. USDA consistently even as yields in late-harvest years tend to improve by the final. Be aware the trade may once again be underestimating yields vs. USDA as they have consistently done the past 3-4 months. Read More...

November 6, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Markets reacted negatively to news the signing of Phase 1 with China may be delayed until December. I maintain there need be no trade deal with China in order to trade with China. Simply abandon tariffs and allow global trade to flow naturally; like it did prior to the tariff-wars. Read More...

November 5, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
We examine the history of global soybean trade with an emphasis on U.S., Brazil, and China's share. With that information we make a reasonable estimate of U.S. soybean exports if/when trade with China normalizes. Read More...

November 4, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
With USDA's monthly supply and demand update Friday, we update corn and soybean export sales with comparisons to forecast and historical levels at this time of year. Read More...

October 30, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Following Tuesday's focus on beef, today we consider the implications of total U.S. protein production (beef, pork, broilers), projections for exports, and domestic consumption. Read More...

October 29, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
With only a couple exceptions, beef and fed-cattle futures have followed long-term seasonal price trend tendencies. But one possible red flag is the higher than normal boxed beef values may discourage food service providors from menu features in Q1. Read More...

October 28, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Prevailing sentiment from analysts and producers expect corn yields to decline relative to USDA estimates when final results are announced in January. Much of the expectation is rooted in the notion of late planted and late-harvested crops result in lower potential yields. Comparisons of final yields vs. mid-season estimates in similar condition years are in some contrast to the notion. Read More...

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