August 15, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
By comparison to the first 3 days this week, markets settled into a low volume, narrow range today. Read More...

August 14, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
There continues to be widespread dispute and skepticism USDA's producer-based survey of acreage and yields accurately represent the nation's crops. Can 20,000 producers providing input to USDA really be off by so much? Read More...

August 13, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
This week has seen some significant changes in crop and livestock prices as the market responds to unexpected changes in the fundamentals. Read More...

August 12, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Corn acreage and yield revisions were beyond consensus expectations setting the stage for corn supplies that could end the crop year above 2 billion bushels for the 4th consecutive year. Given crop progress is well behind normal, uncertainty will remain a factor for the next 2-3 months. Read More...

August 11, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
The extremely wide range of pre-report guesses for U.S. corn imply an equally wide range of possible price responses. I discuss the price implications of those ranges. Read More...

August 8, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA's Ag Attache in Beijing has consistently forecast lower soybean imports for China than USDA's most recent 3 monthly forecasts. Actual imports have given credibility to the Beijing forecast and I expect USDA will revise their forecast lower Monday to narrow the gap in the differing outlooks. Read More...

August 7, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Pre-report analyst guesses have been submitted and reflect the wide range of uncertainty on crop acreage and harvest prospects. Read More...

August 6, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Crop markets can hardly wait until USDA's August 12 update in hopes of some clarity on U.S. crop acreage and yields. Cyberspace and this space will soon be filled with a lot of guesses but I'll spare you at least one more day before discussing mine. Read More...

August 5, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Allowing the Yuan to weaken to levels not seen in over 10 years and declaring a halt of new purchases of U.S. AG are China's primary responses to President Trump's threat to increase tariffs on China goods. Late this afternoon the U.S. declared China a currency manipulator, a move most likely to ratchet tensions higher. Read More...

August 3, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Digging into the details of export sales reveal some encouraging trends, challenges, and vulnerabilities for the year ahead. Read More...

August 1, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Barely 24 hours after the U.S. and China trade negotiators reported progress in talks, President Trump announced additional 10% tariffs on China's $300 billion goods beginning September 1 sent the markets reeling even lower. It's a new level of tension that may de-rail talks and disrupt trade with China. Read More...

July 31, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
The FOMC cut rates for the first time in over 10 years but disappointed the market when it failed to promise this was the beginning of a rate-cut cycle. Trade talks in Shanghai ended early leaving only a few words to everyone's interpretation. Read More...

July 30, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
President Trump had several tweets casting doubt on the prospects of reaching an agreement with China. Setting the bar as he did for "great deal or no deal" is not helpful in the effort. Read More...

July 29, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Outside reversals get a lot of attention on social media. In theory, the direction of the reversal is expected to set the particular market's trend in the direction of the reversal. We examine the reality of the theory for 6 markets. Read More...

July 27, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
If the volume of export sales for corn and soybeans is an indication of the year ahead, and I expect they are, USDA's downward revisions for demand may be bigger surprises than revisions for supply on August 12. Read More...

July 25, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA announced the details of county payment rates for MFP 2.0. Cotton producers fared the best and other crop producers are not complaining (yet). Read More...

July 24, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Slowing global economies, especially manufacturing dependent Eurozone and China, are being reflected in oil consumption that continues to decelerate.The IMF revised global growth down today for the third time this year. Read More...

July 23, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
China released updated pork imports, hog inventories, and first-half 2019 pork production indicating the decline in hog numbers has been more rapid than USDA expected but also indicates pork imports July-December must be significantly larger than the past 6 months if USDA's full-year import forecast is to be realized. Read More...

July 22, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Although acreage remains a big question, conditions for yields continue to evolve in a favorable direction as evidenced by the pullback in crop prices over the past few weeks. Read More...

July 20, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Friday afternoon's two cattle-related reports, Cattle on Feed and the Semi-Annual Inventory, were all in line with expectations. With funds having turned net-buyers this past week following 11 consecutive weeks of selling, signs continue to point toward upside potential for cattle futures. Read More...

July 18, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Dr. Bill Tierney shared experiences from years as head of USDA's feedgrains and wheat forecasting to discuss his outlook for corn supply and demand using various scenarios. Read More...

July 17, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
A number of markets are exhibiting doggy behavior, of particular importance has been the lack of bullish response to what has appeared to be bullish news. Read More...

July 16, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA has eliminated the practice of surveying 'objective yields' for their August forecast but will apply the practice September-November. They will continue the producer-survey requesting yield estimates but will also use satellite imagery to assess U.S. corn and soybean yields in August. Read More...

July 15, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Summer is the season for weather-dominated crop markets when abrupt forecast changes can turn the markets on a dime. Read More...

July 14, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
With so much attention on the acreage and output of current year corn and soybeans; market participants may be well-advised to look at the supply outlook for 2 U.S. crops, spring wheat and cotton, that will influence 2020 acreage of alternative crops. Read More...

Existing Subscribers

Your user name is your email address and the password is as you designated upon subscribing.




Follow on twitter

Recent Messages