April 17, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Managed-money funds have held a consistently bullish outlook for corn building their net-long over 400,000-contracts, the largest since early 2011. Read More...

April 15, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
A timely and informative report from Reuters hightlighting the extent of wheat-substitution for corn and soymeal in China's hog and poultry rations provides clues about USDA's initial 2021/2022 supply and demand forecast scheduled for May 12. Read More...

April 14, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Thursday's report of March soybean crush by NOPA could be a market mover for the soy complex if the variance vs. expectations is similar to February's surprise. Read More...

April 13, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
In anticipation of USDA's initial forecast for 2021/2022 crop year on May 12, I look at current futures with comparisons to past years to identify important resistance and support levels. Read More...

April 12, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
The narrative of the need for large soybean acreage prior to the planting intentions has yielded to lower soybean prices and more favorable revenue prospects for corn. Read More...

April 10,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
To better understand USDA's rationale, it's helpful to read and analyze the Global reports issued simultaneously with every month's supply/demand update. It provides insights why they may appear to be reluctant to increase corn imports for China despite known sales that far exceed USDA's forecast. Read More...

April 8, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Strength in corn in advance of Friday's USDA report is a repeat of last week, each one raising expectations the moves will be the pathway to a new trading range higher. But last week's rally failed to hold. USDA's report may hold the key whether today's rally has different results. Read More...

April 7, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA updates supply and demand Friday incorporating the March stocks report and any demand revisions they deem necessary. Pre-report estimates appear cautious and benign. Expect surprises. Read More...

April 6, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
The latest monthly survey of 400 agricultural producers conducted jointly by Purdue University and the CME Group illustrates a contrast in change of producer's outlook over the past 12 months. The correlation to market price trends is unmistakable. Read More...

April 5, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Winter wheat acreage was more than expected; corn and soybeans less than expected but the timing of winter wheat producer's decisions and prevailing prices of alternative crops at the time need to be considered to better understand the outcomes. Read More...

April 3, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Managed-money funds actively reduced long-exposure to soybeans and soy oil and shifted from long to short in wheat in advance of USDA's stocks and planting intentions. Thursday's price action seemed more aligned with the pre-report positioning than Wednesday's strong price response to USDA's reports. Read More...

March 31, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Intentions to plant fewer acres than intended in March 2020, given the more attractive profit opportunities, was the least expected outcome. Logic can't explain it. Read More...

March 30,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
What may have begun as plans to tidy positions prior to month-end and tomorrow's USDA report on stocks and acreage intention gained momentum as prices fell. I re-visit corn market volatility in past March stocks reports. Read More...

March 29,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Whether influenced by the largest net-long in corn since February 2011 or jitters about the upcoming stocks report, funds turned sellers today pressing corn to important support levels. Read More...

March 27,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
I can't imagine more important reports than Wednesday's grain and soybean stocks and planting intentions. Stocks may be slightly more important than acreage because of the relatively large impact even minor surprises may have on price. Read More...

March 25, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
This afternoon's quarterly Hogs & Pigs report showed lower inventory and lower farrowing intentions than expected the next 6 months. Although supportive to hogs and pork, it indicates fewer consuming animal units for grain and soy. Read More...

March 24, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA will release the results of their surveys and estimates of grain and soy stocks in 1 week. In a year of historically large revisions and surprises in production and quarterly stocks, prepare for more suprises. Read More...

March 23, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Wheat's value relative to corn is attracting additional demand. A trend that began in China has now become a market-factor in the U.S. If values remain attractive, it could result in the largest HRW wheat for feed since crop year ending 2013. Read More...

March 22,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
An oil reporter brought to my attention the 5 major energy markets have seen very little change in risk-positions held by the funds the past few weeks. It's a theme I've discussed with the 5 top agricultural markets. Read More...

March 20, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Following up to Thursday's newsletter, I illustrate the importance and dependence commercials and fund managers depend upon each other to transfer risk and establish risk-positions. Read More...

March 18,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
It was largely a wholesale correction in commodity land but the pullback in corn following the third day of big sales may be sending an important message. Read More...

March 17, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Weekly ethanol production was encouraging, still below year ago levels but closing the gap. Within 2 weeks, current production will be compared to the depths of the Covid-slowdown. Read More...

March 16, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Although record sales of corn and soybeans have heaped a lot of media attention in that direction, some of the biggest price-changes this year are outside that circle. Read More...

March 15, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
The National Oilseed Processors surprised all estimates reporting February soy crush 155 million bushels , 13 million under the average estimate and 11 million below last year. It implies rationing is in effect and may set-up a trajectory the rest of the crop year that has crush below USDA's current forecast. Read More...

March 13, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Effective Monday, new spot-month and all-month position limits become effective in the 9 legacy grain, soy, and cotton markets. I discuss the changes and implications. Read More...

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