October 21, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
China government owns an estimated 3.2 billion bushels wheat and the rally in domestic corn has the wheat/corn spread the most favorable toward feeding wheat in over 5 years. These two factors may open the door for China to more aggressively auction wheat stocks as a means to supplement tight corn supply and high corn prices. Read More...

October 20, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
I analyze Q1 corn producer marketing patterns similar to the soybean analysis of 2 weeks ago , adding price into the mix. Read More...

October 19, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Although the current focus on South America is on dry soil and delayed monsoons, similar La Nina years illustrate precipitation has improved significantly later in the same growing season. Read More...

October 17, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
It's unusual to have weather-dominated crop markets during the U.S. harvest but a number of 'hot' spots around the globe have the market pricing in adverse supply results long before anybody will know the eventual outcome. Shades of the May-June 2019 corn rally are revived when the uncertainty was much different than the outcome. Read More...

October 15, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Barge shipments and changes in the value of barge freight are useful indications if producer and commercial marketing are responding to market signals. Read More...

October 14, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Market signals are doing the necessary job of dis-incentives to store soybeans and corn; a natural response to record demand. I examine historical producer marketing in Q1 for soybeans. Read More...

October 13, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
U.S. consumers have nothing to worry about when it comes to available meat protein in the foreseeable future. But pork producers may need to begin preparing and planning for the day when China's need to import pork has been replaced by a return to more normal domestic pork production. Read More...

October 12, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
As we're early in the process of setting the harvest price for Crop Insurance revenue protection, I compare average prices received over the past 10 years to Revenue-Protection levels. Read More...

October 11, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Lower corn production than expected resulting from revised acreage, not yields, underpinned corn despite larger ending supply than expected. I look at USDA's price forecast in corn and soybeans derived by stocks/usage ratios. Read More...

October 8, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
The harvest rally in grain and soy has been the main attraction but futures spreads are becoming a sideshow worthy of attention. I look at the trend in spreads from select years drawn from the 7 harvest rallies dating back to 2007. Read More...

October 7, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
About the only facet of the current corn and soybean rally that is unique is this rally did not begin from seasonal lows in August or September as many harvest rallies have in the past. We examine the characteristics of numerous harvest rallies. Read More...

October 6, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Given record sales of U.S. soybeans and corn, the possibility U.S. exports could be constrained by export capacity is becoming a possibility to consider. Read More...

October 5, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Demand is likely to require a much larger proportion of producer soybean sales in Q1 than in the past. That appears consistent with producer's intentions to market more soybeans/ retain more corn. Read More...

October 3, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
I expand on the implications of Argentina's policy-change to reduce export taxes 3% on soybeans and soy products, valid through December 31. Read More...

October 1, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
We have our attention focused on reports Argentina will cut export taxes on soybeans for a 3-month period in efforts to generate much needed hard-dollar trade revenue. It could spur competition for U.S. soy sales at a time when U.S. capacity is tight and export margins wide. Read More...

September 30, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA made an unprecedented move today by adjusting corn stocks in the June 1 report but without a revision in 2019 production. It now places more importance on 2020 corn production with carryin supplies from the 2019/2020 year tightening. Read More...

September 29, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
24-hours before the September 1 grain and soybean stocks release USDA reports they may revise 2019 corn production "if necessary". They will now review corn production of the prior crop year with the possibility of revision with each September stocks report as they have been doing for soybeans. This adds uncertainty to Wednesday's report. Read More...

September 28, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA's report of September 1 corn stocks has the potential for a negative surprise vs. pre-report expectations when they report on Wednesday. As is often the case for corn stocks, it boils down to implied feed use. Read More...

September 27, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
In recent weeks I've highlighted shipping capacity. Export margins indicate exporters and global consumers needing U.S. soy or grain in the next few months acknowledge the limited available capacity and have rushed to secure their reservation for loading. Read More...

September 24, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
The after-the-close quarterly hogs and pigs report had 2 important surprises indicating the 2 heaviest weight class of for-market hogs totaled @ 1.5 million head above expectations. But wholesale pork and futures have not indicated any concern about burdensome supply so the market's reaction to this report will be the better indicator. Read More...

September 23, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
This week has seen price momentum and bullish sentiment turn more cautious in most all markets. I highlight a few that may be in the early stages of trend change and 1 important market in an advanced stage of weakness that may accelerate. Read More...

September 22, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Back to back livestock inventory reports; Hogs & Pigs Thursday and Cattle on Feed Friday, could be pivotal for livestock futures. I discuss expectations for the Cattle on Feed report today. Read More...

September 21, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Grain and oilseeds all had meaningful corrections today, a process that had been in play as bullish sentiment got stretched and fund's long position in soybeans reached near-record levels. Read More...

September 19, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Export sales of soybeans have been steady and record-setting in absolute terms historically but when measured relative to total U.S. supply or adjusted to growth in total global trade, sales to date appear less impressive. Read More...

September 17, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
You know when I cite a famous quote from Winston Churchill and insert China in the mix, it's bound to be interesting. Read More...

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