May 18, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
The events of the week seemed like a 30-day supply with concerns about spring crop acreage taking precedent over trade relations and sluggish demand. Read More...

May 16, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Prevent Plant (PP) will be a big part of the crop market lexicon over the next few weeks as deadline dates to qualify for insurance coverage force complex decisions for acreage. Read More...

May 15, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Given the attention from resolving the trade issues with China is now focused on trade-aid, we look at some of the considerations that may effect the size and timing of the aid. Read More...

May 14, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Following up with the author of USDA's headline paper on the cumulative impact of ASF on China's soy demand, we share USDA's explanation of their assumptions and conclusion. Read More...

May 13, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA's report Friday made a point to emphasize the impact of ASF on soybean trade with China. Read More...

May 11, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
U.S. -China talks overshadowed USDA's supply and demand update with the two sides appearing further apart than has been publicly revealed before now. The U.S. plans to reveal the new list of proposed tariffs that could shape China's promise for retaliation. Read More...

May 9, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
U.S. and China began the day exchanging threats of new tariffs and weekly export sales for corn and soybeans fell short of expectations, the day's worst possible combination. Read More...

May 8, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
We continue our analysis and expectations for USDA's supply and demand forecast looking at their first attempt at 2019/2020. Read More...

May 7, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Although the current focus is on planting-weather and trade talks, attention should be paid to possible revisions USDA will make on Friday with implications for grain, soy, and cotton supplies. Read More...

May 6, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
The status of trade talks and trade relations with China are now uncertain even as the China delegation was due to arrive the U.S. for what was billed last week as the final meeting to conclude an agreement. Read More...

May 5, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Last week was a period of upside and downside streaks, some that date back a few years and others a new record. Managed-money funds have actively reduced risk in some markets while expanding it in others. With USDA's updating supply/demand forecasts May 10, the week ahead could be a consolidation period for prices. Read More...

May 2, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Is it weather? Were the annual Wheat Tour yield results below the market's expectations? Were new contract lows reason enough to rally? These and other factors may be the catalysts behind wheat's 2-day rally. Read More...

May 1, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
The culmination of supportive factors contributed to improved momentum in crop markets lifting some off their contract low. Follow through will be important to building on the early signs of momentum. Read More...

April 30, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
April closed out with a number of crops closing at their lowest level for the month of April in over 10 years. Read More...

April 29, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
New contract lows in hard red winter and spring wheat capped off Day 1 of the annual Winter Wheat Tour. The lack of crop maturity in hard wheat will present challenges for credible yield estimates. Read More...

April 28, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
The genesis of the bear market in corn can be traced to the expiration of options on the March contract. Friday's option expiration saw 95,000 puts exercised indicating those options converted to futures. We examine why the trend in corn may behave differently than the 2 months following the March options expiry. Read More...

April 25, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
I maintain not every major move in a specific market requires an identifiable catalyst. Markets can sometimes simply exhaust themselves of the prevailing trend. Read More...

April 24, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
We don't profess to know all the factors influencing wheat prices but we're confident the market has its eye on the outlook for Russia's wheat production that's driving forward prices lower and discounts to nearby cash values even wider. Read More...

April 23, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Bullish sentiment readings for Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans are into my definition of extreme levels. We illustrate 5 years of price behavior in these markets when sentiment was similar levels. Read More...

April 22, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
The U.S. plans to not renew exemptions to U.S. sanctions for the 8 countries importing Iranian oil gave the oil market the catalyst needed for a breakout. But production from Saudis, Russia, UAE, and U.S. could easily make-up for the absence of Iranian oil. Read More...

April 20, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
We dissect changes in fund-positions since end-February for 6 major markets including 3 with multiple new record fund-positions over the period. How the changes in risk-positions came about can tell us more about sentiment than the mere net change. Read More...

April 17, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Thursday's Cattle on Feed report, to be released during trading hours, is expected to show a record on-feed inventory for April. The March report was the catalyst for a correction from new contract high so the stakes are high for this report. Read More...

April 16, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
We think there are lessons about market psychology to be learned from the U.S. experience with PEDv in 2013-2014 applicable to China's ASF. Read More...

April 15, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
News media reports indicating ongoing negotiations on tariffs illustrates a final agreement between the U.S. and China is still weeks away. Read More...

April 13, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Most markets appear to be biding their time awaiting the next catalyst. We also follow up to Thursday's newsletter that focused on trends in China's soybean imports and what it may be saying about overall feed demand there. Read More...

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