September 20, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
The Federal Reserve officially signaled a plan to reduce their $4.5 trillion balance sheet, culminating the end of QE designed to stabilize/stimulate the economy following the financial crisis. Read More...

September 19, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
Feeder cattle have outperformed fed-cattle in part resulting from feedlot operators desire to keep lots full while feeding margins were positive. But feeding margins have turned 'red' yet feeder cattle prices remain well-supported. Read More...

September 18, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
Although a number of factors influence transportation values, the relative size of export commitments and demand are among the most important. Thus far 2017 is distinguished for having the largest year-over-year contraction in export bookings of the past 10 years at this point in time. Read More...

September 17, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
A combination of increased acreage and improving yields since 2012 has enabled Russia to dominate the global wheat market. U.S. wheat producers have responded by reducing winter wheat acreage by 6 million acres since 2013. Read More...

September 14, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
Increased carcass weights and larger slaughter numbers are the 1-2 punch that's knocking pork and hog prices to the mat. Thus far export sales don't appear to be improving enough to absorb the supply. Read More...

September 13, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
Combining total beginning crop-year supplies with the current prospects of lower exports over the next 3 months relative to last year, a case can be made December 1 corn and soybean stocks will exceed year ago levels by a material amount. Market signals are incentivizing storage. Read More...

September 12, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
Across the board USDA see yields of corn, soybeans, and cotton better than 30 days ago once again surprising the pre-report consensus. Corn and wheat had reasonably impressive re-tests of their recent lows but it remains to be seen if they can be declared successful re-tests. Read More...

September 11, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
Livestock slaughter weights continue to rise, sharply so in hogs, at a time when seasonal demand for protein declines. The influence on the value of component cuts is contributing to softer prices for live and wholesale beef and pork. Read More...

September 10,2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
Tuesday's USDA update on U.S. crop yields may either renew the debate over yields or vindicate those who have argued USDA was overly optimistic in August. We apply some learnings from USDA's process to raise the possibility for a surprise in corn yields Tuesday. Read More...

September 7, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
Corn failed the litmus test necessary for a more robust rally and now appears back on course to re-test last week's low. All may not be lost as a re-test may come concurrent with another extreme low in sentiment adding to the significance of the re-test. Read More...

September 6, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
With fall harvest gearing up, we take a look at energy prices and likely trends as refining and pipeline capacity remains in recovery mode following Hurricane Harvey. Read More...

September 5, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
We look at a couple of metals and signs an interim top may be near. Read More...

September 2, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
Winter wheat broke their strings of 7 weekly losses and corn had it's biggest one-day rally in over a year prompting the question if this is an interim low or just a brief pause in the pain of the recent price declines. Read More...

August 24, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
Wholesale choice beef is about to complete the 12th consecutive week of price declines having lost 24% of its mid-June value peak. Futures can ill-afford more negative news from Friday's Cattle on Feed report. More upside surprises like the July report would tip the scales to the downside. Read More...

August 23, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
One technical method contends the number 7 is a measure that denotes a period of panic be it 7 days, 7 weeks etc. We examine the frequency of bear-market trends that have sustained 7 weeks or longer over the past 5 years. Read More...

August 22, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
The seasonal pattern of winter wheat is playing out very similar to last year albeit the magnitude of the recent decline is unlike most any market since Crude Oil's in 2015/2016. Look for stability by mid-September but price may be lower. Read More...

August 21, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
Retailers pulled back sharply on promotions for bacon and pork in the latest data as the time-lag of wholesale to retail prices cut into margins. It's the one alarm bell that appears to have been the catalyst for sharp declines in pork and belly values and more recently cash hog prices. Read More...

August 17, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
We take a closer look at the pace of export sales needed over the next 20 weeks to put corn and soybeans on the pace to meet current USDA forecasts. Read More...

August 16, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
Ugly, a family-friendly four-letter word, best describes the price action in most crops this week. Sentiment has reached extreme levels in winter wheat but that alone will not be enough to sustain a meaningful rally. Read More...

August 14, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
The closing few minutes of trade for grains were the most encouraging signs on the day but upside follow through is needed to confirm and reinforce support. Read More...

August 12, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
Knowledge of USDA's methods used (and not used) in gathering and forecasting U.S. crop yields would serve to reduce report-day surprises. For me, I learned how much I didn't know and still have more to learn. Read More...

August 10, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
Wide divergence of crop yields between USDA and analyst surveys shocked the market and propelled prices lower. The debate will continue into harvest. Read More...

August 9, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
Six consecutive weeks of substantial drawdowns of U.S. oil inventories improved the supply/demand balance and boosted prices. The 'seasonality' clock may be working against refiners efforts to further reduce supplies substantially before demand begins a descent. Read More...

August 8, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
The market's consensus for USDA's reports on Thursday are established providing benchmarks for bulls and bears to line up accordingly. The best strategy may be to simply have no pre-established expectations so as to safeguard against having to adjust to surprises, and there are sure to be some. Read More...

August 7, 2017 - Author: Ken Morrison
Advance sales of cotton for the 2017/2018 year that began August 1 is an anomaly when compared to past year's sales pace at this early date. But similar year's remind us the pace of sales early in the year is not a reliable indicator for the full year. Read More...

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