The soy complex has suddenly gone into a waterfall decline that spread to products. Very weak cash markets in Brazil continue to contribute to the weakness and the lack of storage in Brazil won't be resolved quickly. Read More...

Only one previous time, 2011, did managed-money funds pare their positions in the 5 ag markets by over 400,000-contracts as witnessed recently within a 4-week period. I compare impact on prices of the massive selling in the two periods. Read More...

Soybeans saw late selling come in resulting in the lowest closing price in months. Although grains and soy were generally weak, I attribute the weakness in soybeans to the price-divergence of U.S. vs. Brazil that has become unsustainable. Read More...

The International Grains Council released their first outlook for global grain supply and demand along with an updated forecast for the current year. Ukraine also updated their grain production estimates for 2023. Read More...

Sharp declines in Oil and other economically sensitive markets now test important support even as expectations for an economic slowdown are on the rise. Read More...

Following up on my comment in the AM note today, I took a look at new crop soybean sales over the past 10 years. Read More...

The past 24 hours has run the gamut from record position-changes to multi-month lows in Oil and diesel. Recession-sensitive markets bore the brunt of the weakness. Read More...

Oil is retesting lows from December and products are not far behind but it's symptomatic of commodities in general where weakness has been the prevailing trend for over 3 months. Read More...

Closures of 2 banks and fears of more to come have resulted in a turn-about on expectations of interest rates and the FOMC's war on inflation. CPI and PPI this week may provide guidance in advance of the FOMC meeting next week. Read More...

The outperformance of soybeans relative to any alternative spring crop is now compelling from a net-revenue perspective. Coming at a time when USDA is surveying producers for planting intentions, recent changes in profit-potential is sure to adjust some plans. Read More...

Like the railroad that had 3 widely publicized derailments in the past 30 days, grain markets have come off their proverbial rails too as slack demand finally overtook support. Read More...

Uncharacteristic aggressive revisions, departing from their usual gradual adjustments, USDA surprised most market participants but proved to be inline with what the market has been thinking about Argentine crops. Read More...

Fed Chairman Powell's testimony and outlook for fed-funds rates to the U.S. Senate referenced rates will need to go higher than previously expected. But is his frame of reference the expectations of the FOMC or the recent market expectations which are higher than FOMC's last guidance for future rates? Read More...

Risk and Reward tends to happen fast with winter wheat futures as it took only a matter of days to realize $1 dollar losses. Whether wheat can find solid footing may depend on the value relative to corn. Read More...

I examine USDA's outlook for 2023/2024 in comparison to the current year forecast within the context market participants are losing confidence on demand. Read More...

Sales of soybeans for the 2023/2024 crop year lag each of the past 2 years by a wide margin. I expect the outlook for record supply in Brazil is a primary reason global consumers see no reason to rush into U.S. commitments for the next crop year. Read More...

Grain markets managed to shake-off early weakness to close with gains following deep dives of the past 5-6 days. To validate today's recovery will require navigating overhead resistance. Read More...

Soybeans emerged as the newest leader to the downside, breaking support, and joining recent weakness in corn & wheat. Sentiment in the latter two is nearing extreme levels. Read More...

Grain continued under pressure by liquidation of March contracts in advance of delivery notices Tuesday. The next 2 days should tell if that's been the primary catalyst of the pullback that's been ongoing since mid-month. Read More...

Aggressive position-liquidation in advance of first-notice for March contract deliveries was the primary catalyst for sharp price declines in grain. Underperformance of corn vs. soybeans may alter some acreage plans. Read More...

Corn and HRW selling at the 8:30 opening was probably a continuation of liquidation seen over the past 2-3 days in advance of the first-delivery-day notice of the March contracts. Read More...

If you're an early-riser, USDA will release their preliminary thoughts on the next crop-year balance sheets at 6 AM CST Thursday. Read More...

Friday's cattle on feed inventory may be just the catalyst needed to send cattle futures a step close toward the 2014 record high. Read More...

Bloomberg's request for analyst-estimates of crops in advance of this week's USDA Ag Forum was the impetus to take the first serious look at a few scenarios. Read More...

In the continuing series in advance of next week's USDA Ag Forum, today's focus is cotton. Read More...

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