June 10,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Today's upward revision in current year corn demand from USDA is most likely the last upward revision this crop year. Given the tightest supply in 8 years, U.S. corn is uncompetitive in the global market. The focus will soon shift to the June 30 acreage and stocks estimates. Read More...

June 9, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Expectations for USDA to revise corn for ethanol higher for the current year ending August are justified, whether Thursday or later. But seasonal demand peak for gasoline and thus ethanol are just around the corner so recent levels are about as good as it will get near-term. Read More...

June 8, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
I expect USDA's upward revision in winter wheat production will be larger than expected Thursday but don't be surprised if they offset part of the increased supply by raising wheat for feed demand. Read More...

June 7, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
A surge at the opening turned to weakness with a more favorable outlook for moisture where it's needed most proving the deciding factor. This afternoon's crop condition ratings may provide a lift but forward-looking forecasts will be more influential than crop conditions taken only a few days ago. Read More...

June 5, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Weather is dominating the crop markets but the focus will have at least a brief pause Thursday when USDA updates their supply and demand forecast. Read More...

June 3, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
It's something learned through experience over time but Joe Janzen at the University of Illinois quantified the effect of weather-risk premium in corn futures. Read More...

June 2,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
As the first-of-the-year condition rating for soybeans approaches, let's turn our attention on what it might tell us about the predictive power for eventual yield. Read More...

June 1, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
The first crop-condition rating for Corn this year is only 1 of 5 this high over the past 16 years. 3 of the 4 prior year's with similar ratings produced above-trend yields. The other had the worst below-trend yield ever in absolute terms. Which history will repeat in 2021? Read More...

May 29, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Wide trading ranges in crops were the dominant stories but the price-changes on the week might lead one to believe hardly anything happened. Read More...

May 27, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
If you're looking for an explanation for today's market, I'll save you time. I never saw it coming and won't pretend to explain why it did what it did. Read More...

May 26, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Following up on Tuesday's feature regarding downside targets for Corn. Read More...

May 25, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Head & Shoulders chart patterns in the July and December Corn contracts broke and closed below important support levels today establishing new downside risk targets. Read More...

May 24, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
U.S. corn at 90% planted is the speediest near-completion since 2012. But the correlation of planting progress to yield is hardly something to count on. Comparisons of 2012 and 2014 are good cases in point. Read More...

May 22, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Requiring 92 days, the longest ever from peak-long, managed money funds have now cut their combined risk position of the 5 major ag markets by over 20%. History indicates they will cut more. Read More...

May 20,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA's monthly cattle on feed inventory after Friday's close could have the potential for surprise given its comparable benchmark April 2020 was during the depths of Covid-19. Read More...

May 19,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
The past few days have witnessed significant corrections in a number of markets. We discuss one tool useful to establish possible support levels when the corrections have run their course. Read More...

May 18, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
News and market headlines tend to trail the price and price trends often ignoring narratives contrary to the dominant market influence of the day or week. More often than not, the market revisits information once dismissed as unimportant. Read More...

May 17, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
So many charts have pulled back/corrected into important support areas. Failure to hold support could be trend-changers but rallies and recoveries will also come grudgingly. Read More...

May 15, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Corn posted some big losses the past 2 days. A culmination of several issues and events, price-action like that tends to occur only when funds and commercials are sellers resulting in a void of buyers. Read More...

May 13, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
In what seemed like a broad risk-reduction pullback than event-driven, there was hardly any commodity spared from the sell-off. Trend lines were broken presenting new challenges if the rally in commodities is to continue. Read More...

May 12,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA's first attempt at forecasting next crop year provides useful benchmarks by which to measure fundamentals and today's price action in futures provide useful benchmarks for subsequent price-action. Read More...

May 11, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Wednesday's forecast from USDA will be only the second in 16 years with Corn at or near the contract high. It's an important test for the trend. Read More...

May 6, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
In this third and final installment, I look at the 2021/2022 forecasts from USDA staff in overseas offices that may (or may not) influence USDA's global forecast on May 12. Read More...

May 5, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Following on Tuesday's theme, we look at the global wheat outlook from the perspective of USDA's overseas attaches. Read More...

May 4, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Based on forecasts submitted by numerous USDA staff in overseas posts, I compare their outlook for 2021/2022 in their respective countries of responsibility to USDA's current year forecasts. It may provide some guidance on USDA's first 2021/2022 forecast on May 12. Read More...

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