January 22, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
We examine China's pork and meat production for 2019 that left a huge gap even after increases in poultry production and pork imports. Although slight improvement in Q4 pork production, it will be a long road to recovery. Read More...

January 21, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Many wonder how USDA will account for demand from the trade deal with China in upcoming forecasts. There are a number of ways they could go and we discuss the most likely approach. Read More...

January 18, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Commitments within the Phase 1 deal obligating China to allocate 100% of the most favorable tariff-rate quotas for grain as required by the 2001 WTO agreement has the potential to expand China's grain imports. Volume of TRQ-induced trade from the U.S. and direct U.S. benefit derived from the new requirements will depend upon U.S. competitiveness relative to alternative suppliers. Read More...

January 16, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
China's state-media was actively communicating the terms and commitments of Phase 1, the underlying objective to convince the public of the mutual benefits and 'win-win' results of the negotiations. We share some excerpts providing a perspective what the deal means for China. Read More...

January 15, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
The focus can now shift from 'will there be a deal' to 'will China fulfill the commitment'. The focus on market conditions and competitive-price terms casts some doubt. Read More...

January 14, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Plans move ahead for Wednesday's signing of the Phase 1 deal with China but pronouncements from U.S. negotiators today indicate details may be still be absent after the deal is signed. Read More...

January 13, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
U.S. grain storage capacity exceeds annual grain and soybean production and growth in new capacity in some major states has exceeded production growth. In contrast, Brazil is severely deficit grain and soybean storage with only a very small proportion on-farm capacity. Each of these situations influence grain and soybean marketing patterns and seasonality. Read More...

January 11, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA's January forecast resolves most of the outstanding debate over production save for a few million acres yet to be harvested that USDA will re-survey later. Focus will now shift to 2020 acres and the outlook for supply that, at this early stage, appears to be ample to surplus well into 2021. Read More...

January 9, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
We run through a few final thoughts and expectations of Friday's USDA forecast including considerations of bullish and bearish price parameters to consider. Read More...

January 8,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Oil, Oil products, and Gold have been the recent upside leaders in commodities but even extended rallies need a rest. Weak fundamentals contributed to the break in Oil and products but the trend remained intact. Read More...

January 7, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Using 20 years of export sales data for corn and soybeans, we discover some useful patterns that enable anticipation of USDA's likely approach to revisions in export forecasts in January. Read More...

January 6,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
End-of-year fund positions are especially interesting in so much as they depict risk-appetites of professional money managers in advance of the annual index fund re-balancing. Read More...

January 4, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Markets become more vulnerable to contra-trend moves when sentiment becomes extremely bullish or bearish. The catalyst necessary to trigger a big move is usually unexpected as was the case Friday. . Read More...

January 2, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Index re-balancing is an annual event in January. Significant rallies the past 30 days in 2 markets indexers will be adding more exposure may, in part, be 'opportunistic' a/k/a front-running the indexers. Read More...

January 1, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
2019 is history, market-contest winners have been determined, and we make our Fearless Forecasts for 2020 with the hope our foresight is as clear as the coming year implies. . Read More...

December 21, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
The number of managed-money funds trading the major commodities tends to be relatively stable in total but with shifts in the number long vs. short. But when sizeable changes in total funds occur, it may be a proxy for their collective view on the prospects for trends. Read More...

December 19,2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Using the dollar-value of U.S. Ag trade with China in 2017, we examine possible scenarios that may provide a pathway to achieve more trade with China in 2020. Read More...

December 18, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Monthly cattle on feed Friday and Monday's quarterly hogs and pigs report should establish the outlook for domestic and exportable supplies of meat proteins in 2020. It will be especially important to the outlook for pork trade with China. Read More...

December 17, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
With a new administration in Argentina, new set of export taxes on grain and soy will increase the burdon on Argentine producers but it's yet to be detemined if it will affect big changes in crop acreages. Read More...

December 16, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Recent rallies have a number of markets either in breakouts or on the verge. I provide a market-by-market analysis. Read More...

December 14, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
China's lack of specifics on the size of the trade commitment contrasted with the many speciifcs outlined by USTR Lighthizer casting doubt whether there is an agreement and its size. Read More...

December 12, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
As they say in the news business, 'developing story', the U.S. reports China has agreed to buy $50 Bln in U.S. agricultural goods in 2020. Keeping in mind we heard this 2 months ago, it's important to await confirmation from China and hear more details regarding tariff rollbacks and tariff delays. Read More...

December 11, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA featured Brazil in 3 of the 4 World Markets and Trade texts reports Tuesday highlighting the influence rising supplies there are having on U.S. share of trade and thus crop prices. Read More...

December 10, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA's December forecast update was benign in terms of market impact but may be best identified for defying historical patterns than for the revisions made (and not made). Read More...

December 9, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Tuesday is USDA's monthly supply and demand update when the attention and most revisions, if any, will be on the demand side of the balance sheets. I prepare you for potential risk parameters that may result from USDA revisions. Read More...

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