June 25, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Every commodity is off its high with the range of losses 6-30%. Narratives vary how we got here but money managers have been reducing exposure to commodities for several weeks, last week the most noticeable. The first step to a recovery will be to stop the declines. One day's recovery is insufficient evidence. Read More...

June 23,2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Across the board exodus from commodities continued pushing more traders and money-managers into loss making situations accelerating the urgency to sell. Read More...

June 22, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
There are 3 primary components contributing to retail fuel costs. I examine each one and their contribution to the higher year-over-year fuel costs. Read More...

June 21, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
The first day of summer proved to be one of the sharpest pullbacks in crops in several weeks that included opening gaps to the downside and broken trend supports. Read More...

June 19, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
The biggest pullback in gasoline futures since March 2020 should set the course for lower retail fuel prices. Elsewhere, weakness in wheat is in contrast to the continued bullish bias held by many. They each lay important groundwork for the week ahead. Read More...

June 16, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
NOAA long-term forecast has above normal heat sticking around and that got the crop-market's attention. Read More...

June 15, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
FOMC hiked the fed-funds rate 75-basis points, as expected, in an effort to tame inflation and indicate more increases will occur in the 4 remaining meetings this year. Read More...

June 14, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
A larger share of U.S. refining capacity is now producing more gasoline for export compared to year ago. Gasoline exports are up over 20% year-over-year and over 60% of the exports flow to Mexico. The demand-pull on U.S. gasoline production is a contributor to higher U.S. fuel prices in addition to wider refining margins and higher crude oil. Read More...

June 13, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Concerns the Federal Reserve's fight vs inflation will result in a U.S. recession pushed most markets lower today. But I highlight soybeans where the selling the past 2 days is more fundamentally grounded. Read More...

June 11, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA acknowledged, to the surprise of many, current year corn exports are not meeting previous forecasts. But the market took it all in stride. Read More...

June 9, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Attention will be closely paid to USDA's forecast for corn demand. The global wheat supply will have a few revisions since May, supply up in some places, down in others. Wheat charts need 'good news' to reaffirm their trend but may not get it. Read More...

June 8, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA began the new crop year forecasting corn yield below trend based on a late start to planting. With planting progress now ahead of average at this time of year, USDA's rationale for below-trend yield may come into question Friday. Read More...

June 7,2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Everybody is aware retail gasoline and diesel prices are up sharply but few are aware the components that have contributed to the price at the pump. Read More...

June 6, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Ethanol production continues to exceed the natural demand for blending and cannot be explained by ethanol exports. Of further concern is the sluggish demand for gasoline, evidence relative high prices are having a rationing effect on demand. Read More...

June 5, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA updates grain supply and demand Friday. If there was any doubt about export demand falling behind the pace needed to achieve their forecast, it was resolved when China approved Brazil's corn for import. Read More...

June 2, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Board margins for soy crushing resemble a dive-bomber the past 30 days, the steepest decline in the shortest amount of time in many years. I think it may be a function of the strong Real as much as tight supply of U.S. soybeans but don't look for better margins until beans stop outperforming the soy products. Read More...

June 1, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
June begins the way May ended with more paring of risk that has now taken some markets below their 50-day moving averages for the first time in 5 months. Read More...

May 31, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
End-of-month trade can be especially volatile if traders decide they simply want to get a position off their books. Optimism about resumption of shipments from Ukraine may have accelerated the selling. Read More...

May 26, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
As relative values among competing crops change, so do the economic outcomes. In one week's time, net-margins for corn have declined over $50/acre compared to Soybeans but Corn remains the most favorable economic choice. Read More...

May 25, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Market-psychology is both interesting and predictable; news that draws no attention in one market environment suddenly becomes important when sentiment changes. Read More...

May 24, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
China made Monday's rumor official announcing today they have agreed to import corn from Brazil, the #1 global corn importer links up with the #2 exporter. Read More...

May 23, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Rumors circulated earlier today China and Brazil reached agreement on quality-documentation that would enable Brazil to ship corn to China. It was discussed between the 2 parties a year ago and there's even more economic reason for it now. Read More...

May 21, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Nobody complained about a dull, uneventful week last week. How markets began the week hardly resemble how they ended, a reminder that extreme sentiment is an important leading contrary-indicator of market behavior. Read More...

May 19 ,2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
With Kansas wheat yields and production, according to the WQC tour, near USDA's estimate; there was little 'new' information for wheat today. I expand on the comment earlier today regarding grain sorghum export sales and demand. Read More...

May 18, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
The value of 2023 hard red winter wheat futures, outright and relative to corn, is a clear outlier by comparison to anything seen in the past 15 years. In less than 5 months, most winter wheat producers will be faced with decisions about acreage and alternative crops. Will the outlier be enough to trigger a material increase in acreage? Read More...

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