February 25, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Early strength in crop markets turned to weakness upon the release of weekly export sales where soybeans, corn, and wheat each fell short of meeting the low-end range of estimates. It's put a couple of markets in a more vulnerable risk position. Read More...

February 24, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
The pace to date of corn shipments to China will need to be ramped up significantly very soon if commitments are to be completed within the current crop year. Read More...

February 23, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Fertilizers and crop prices usually move in tandem but fertilizers have outperformed crop markets for the past 30 days and show no sign of softening. Read More...

February 22, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
For all the talk about a commodity super-cycle, the economic foundation that has preceded past long-term commodity cycles hardly seem to fit the hype. Read More...

February 20, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA's approach and outlook for U.S. acreages are similar to what my analysis on net-revenue indicates for the 3 major crops of corn,soybeans, and cotton. USDA's 3-crop acreage total 194 million which exceeds the previous high in 2017 by 1 million acres. The soybean market will be challenged to reach 90 million acres. Read More...

February 18,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Lacking a dominant market feature, we briefly touch on a few issues from USDA's first-day outlook on crop acreages, Friday's cattle on feed report, and ethanol production. Read More...

February 17, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Winter-kill in winter wheat is nearly impossible to quantify while the crop is dormant and severity can depend on mulitple factors. What we know is the conditions of the past 10 days are setting record-cold establishing a higher-than-normal probability of 'some' impact on wheat production. Read More...

February 16, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
It's not hard to find inflation whether building & furnishing a home or purchasing imported goods. U.S. farmland had its largest gain since 2012. But interest rates, sensing increased federal borrowing and inflation, are also 'inflating'. Read More...

February 13, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Front-month soybean futures are showing signs of 'fatigue' and increasing risk of a trend change. Read More...

February 11,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
With current year-end grain and soybean supply taking shape, the market's focus will increasingly turn to 2021 acreage. USDA's preliminary outlook at the annual Ag Forum next week will be the next focal point. Read More...

February 10,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA updated livestock and poultry production and issued domestic consumption estimates indicating record meat consumed in the U.S. in 2020. Read More...

February 9, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Expectations for a bullish report were high and USDA's report failed to meet them. Look for the corn market to enter a period of consolidation that may include a pullback from current levels. Read More...

February 8, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
On the eve of USDA's updated supply and demand with most market participants expecting large upward revisions in corn exports and corresponding reductions in year end supply, I examine the relationship of exports and stocks/usage. Read More...

February 6, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
The first 5 months of the corn and soybean crop year is in the books with new records set for export soybean shipments and export sales of soybeans and corn. Corn by historical standards is the outlier with an outlook for record shipments in the next 7 months. Read More...

February 4, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
We take a look at feeding margins in U.S. hogs and consider the outlook the next 6 months or longer when it's hard to imagine margins improve. Read More...

February 3, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
The latest week's ethanol production and gasoline demand look a lot like most recent weeks , double-digit declines from year-ago levels. Comparisons to a year ago will continue to show large declines into mid-March and summertime gasoline demand will need to improve if corn for ethanol is to achieve USDA forecasts. Read More...

February 2, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Following up to a recent comment, I look at the forecasts of all grain and soybean imports for China with comparisons to previous years with an eye toward understanding if vessel discharge capacity may be a constraint. Read More...

February 1, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
When anomalies appear in charts or information, it's important to understand the contributing factors. Many point to a significant increase in U.S. corn export forecasts in 2014 inferring it could happen this year. Digging into the 2014 event provides the reason why it was an exception unlikely to be repeated this year. Read More...

January 30, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
It's clear China's government has given importers the greenlight to import corn far in excess of the official limit set for low-tariff imports. But the lack of transparency makes it virtually impossible to know if there is an upper limit. One thing for sure, U.S. corn exports the next 7 months will be a record for the period. Read More...

January 28, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
The average of new crop futures for spring-planted crops in February set the base prices for crop insurance utilized by 80-90% of U.S. crop producers as the primary risk-management tool. Read More...

January 27,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
We all are guilty at times of seeking information that confirm our beliefs. Market participants are especially prone to confirmation bias making it critically important to seek out the context behind the headlines and soundbites. Read More...

January 26,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Today's 1.4 million tons corn sale to China is the first of its size since early September. We examine the pace of shipments to China and make a case, at the pace of the past 4+ months, sales on the books may nearly fulfill China's need from the U.S. until September. Read More...

January 25, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Follow through after Friday's sell-off had most markets testing important support. That the 'lines' held, triggered buying and recovery now establishing well-defined resistance above and support below. Read More...

January 23, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
There were signs of vulnerability last week culminating Friday with increasing resurgence of Covid-19 and new cases of ASF in China. Robust export sales were not enough to head-off the sellers and modest morning losses accelerated during the day with stop-loss selling contributing. Read More...

January 21,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
The first extensive survey of U.S. producer's acreage intentions was released today with little surprise signaling the largest acreage in several years consistent with crop prices and profit-potential. Read More...

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