February 24, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Gold was the only commodity escaping the dominant sell-orders today. Despite the many pullbacks, we find some encouraging possibilities in markets that held support. Read More...

February 22, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Before getting too distracted by USDA's first notions of the 2020/2021 crop year, it's important to acknowledge there will likely be revisions in the current year balance sheets with implications for the 20/21 crop year. Read More...

February 20, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA's annual Ag Forum has the market's attention with early looks at supply and demand for the 2020/2021 crop year. Despite the long-term view, USDA's track record of pegging prices paid to producers is very commendable. Read More...

February 19,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Bear markets by nature tend to have shallow, short-lived rallies. Heeding the advice of successful traders and investors, sharp rallies in bear markets are best sold. Read More...

February 18, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Reports China will begin accepting applications for exemptions from tariffs on most U.S. agricultural goods provided a catalyst for a wheat-led rally. Given China's annual allocation of 1% tariffs for wheat, it's the least likely to benefit from tariff exemptions. Read More...

February 17, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Resumption of commerce in China is proving to be a challenging, slow process with over two-thirds of companies reliant on commodities expecting it may be 2 or more weeks before staff levels are near normal again. Given China's proportion of the global economy, downward revisions are just beginning. Read More...

February 13, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Analyzing exports and export sales, by any measure sales the next 6 months will need to be much stronger than year ago levels if U.S. corn and soybeans are to achieve USDA's most recent forecasts. Read More...

February 12, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
China's ports and logistics are a mess and the delay in business resumption, including staff returning to work this week, is compounding the problem. Pork shipments find themselves at the heart of the backlog that is now being felt here in the domestic market. Read More...

February 11,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA's approach to today's updated demand forecast with respect to the Phase 1 agreement with China was consistent with their explanation issued last week. They, like everyone, need to see more actual sales activity before making big adjustments. Read More...

February 10, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Eyes will be on USDA's demand forecasts and revisions Tuesday that may influence price trends for 2020-planted crops. Like the Democratic Presidential race, there is no clear front-runner crop revenue earner for 2020 but a lot can and probably will change before the final tally is counted. Read More...

February 8, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
By one important measure, corn and soybean export sales are at levels historically associated with downward revisions in USDA's February forecast. Irrespective of what USDA may do Tuesday, it's going to be a challenge to meet their current full-year export forecasts. Read More...

February 6, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA reversed course on last week's plans to incorporate Phase 1 demand into Tuesday's monthly forecast. The lack of purchase activity from China since the agreement was signed played a part in USDA's decision. Read More...

February 5, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Unlike equities where a new record high was recorded today in the S & P 500, commodities are demonstrating caution. Anxious about the inactivity of sales to China since the Phase 1 signing, the spread of coronavirus adds to the uncertainty. Read More...

February 4,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
The monthly outlook barometer conducted jointly by Purdue University and the CME Group reflected high optimism in mid-January buoyed by the Phase 1 signing. But the market's reaction since has been anything but confident. Prices will need to turnaround if receipts from crop sales in 2020 are to avoid a 4th year of decline. Read More...

February 3, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
February is the month for establishing base crop insurance coverage prices for spring crops. History shows us the month's average is often very close to the price levels on day 1 of the month. Read More...

February 1, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
You will not find any market with the extreme moves in price and sentiment more than Lean Hogs. Having single-digit bullish sentiment only 7 times in the past year, we illustrate each occurrence with comparisons to the present situation. Read More...

January 30, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
We finish the week the way we began by discussing the significance of price-gaps in markets. There are fewer gaps at week's end but they each have a story to tell. Read More...

January 29, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
As airlines suspend or reduce flights to/from China and businesses are told to delay resumption start-up well beyond the end of the Chinese New Year holiday, oil demand in and outside of China is getting increased scrutiny. Read More...

January 28, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Given the year's-long trend of the rising proportion of heifers placed in feedlots, we look ahead to Friday's semi-annual cattle inventory with interest to know what it may say about the future of feeder supply. Read More...

January 27, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Coronavirus has shaken the market's confidence and dimmed the outlook for the global economy and trade. The number of commodities gapping lower today illustrated the risk-off attitude but there were a few intra-day recovery exceptions to the broad weakness. Read More...

January 25, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
The coronavirus has added a new level of uncertainty for the global economy and commodities, coming on the eve of Asia's Chinese New Year celebration and busiest travel and 'feasting' period of the year. Read More...

January 23, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
5 trading sessions have been completed since the ceremonial Phase 1 signing so we look at the changes in markets, in some cases the lack thereof. Read More...

January 22, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
We examine China's pork and meat production for 2019 that left a huge gap even after increases in poultry production and pork imports. Although slight improvement in Q4 pork production, it will be a long road to recovery. Read More...

January 21, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Many wonder how USDA will account for demand from the trade deal with China in upcoming forecasts. There are a number of ways they could go and we discuss the most likely approach. Read More...

January 18, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Commitments within the Phase 1 deal obligating China to allocate 100% of the most favorable tariff-rate quotas for grain as required by the 2001 WTO agreement has the potential to expand China's grain imports. Volume of TRQ-induced trade from the U.S. and direct U.S. benefit derived from the new requirements will depend upon U.S. competitiveness relative to alternative suppliers. Read More...

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