March 25, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Hog production in China has been in some form of disruption for nearly 3 years. As evidenced by 2017 forecasts just 2 years ago, productivity gains from the shift to larger farms proved to beat production forecasts. Don't rule out similar surprises this year. Read More...

March 23, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Funds set record net-short positions for the second consecutive week in corn, canola, and hard red winter wheat, apparently firm in their convictions. The week ahead with important USDA reports could be a water-shed period. Read More...

March 21, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Another limit-up close in Lean Hog futures was fueled by strong cash and wholesale pork plus the expectation of increased pork sales to China. Read More...

March 20, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Divergent and conflicting expectations for what should constitute a successful deal may be the deal-breaker that stands in the way of U.S.-China trade talks. Read More...

March 19, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
We divide 17 charts into 5 categories to provide overviews of trends and momentum and what's needed to change it. Read More...

March 18, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
With the aid of the just released report on China's hog and pork situation by USDA's staff in Beijing, we reflect on the forecasts and implications of China's pork imports. Read More...

March 16, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
A lot can happen in a short amount of time. New record short positions in crop markets held by managed-money funds may be the most supportive 'fundamental' influencing the coming week's price trends. Meanwhile, the recent rally and surge of new money in hog futures amid strong cash hogs is feeding on the expectations of big U.S. pork sales to China. Read More...

March 7, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Grain and oilseeds head into USDA's report Friday at the lowest prices in weeks and in some cases months. Demand will be squarely in focus but current prices may have largely discounted any revisions USDA may make. Read More...

March 6, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Challenges of the tariff-war, contributing to record U.S. soybean supplies, have also altered producer's typical seasonal marketing patterns. Producer's on-farm stocks accounted for 80% of the year-over-year increase as of December 1. Read More...

March 5, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
China Custom's cancellation of a major Canadian-exporter's registrations to ship canola to China occurred the same day as Canada's Justice Department advanced the extradition for an executive of a major Chinese technology manufacturer to face U.S. charges. It indicates trade intersecting with politics. Read More...

March 4, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Friday's press conference by China's Ministry of Agriculture revealed updated information on African Swine Fever and the impact on China's hog and pig inventory. Although grain and soy demand was not discussed, the decline in China's hog inventory shined light on longer-term implications. Read More...

March 2, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Broad recoveries in grains and soy in the final 90 minutes provided encouragement for market participants in the week ahead. But what will it take to alter the outlook which led to the recent price declines? Read More...

February 28, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
The month finally comes to a close with dominant losses in most of the major commodity markets. But it was not without some encouraging signs. Read More...

February 27, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Testimony by USTR Lighthizer downplayed the importance and influence trade will have on any final deal the U.S. may reach with China, and emphasized there is much work left to do if a deal is to be done. Read More...

February 26, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
The U.S. administration may have signaled the first specific issue currently on the table with China since the beginning of trade talks 9 months ago. If they succeed, it indeed would be beneficial to global trade with China. Read More...

February 25, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
As we approach the time of producer's acreage intentions surveys, trends in competing crops provide a guide to the possibilities. Read More...

February 23, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Several moving parts Friday including export sales, USDA outlooks into 2020, and U.S.-China talks. We touch on all of them. Read More...

February 21, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
A report claiming China offered to buy $30 billion U.S. ag products annually was the underpinning of the rally in most agricultural markets. We provide perspective on the magnitude of such a commitment, if it were to gain acceptance by U.S. trade negotiators. Read More...

February 20, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Increasing evidence points to a slowdown in the global economy, in part due to trade tensions. If continued, risk of recession will continue to rise. Read More...

February 19, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Grain and oilseeds, led by wheat, are testing important support levels. News after the close Egypt will tender for wheat will be an important test to determine if global wheat markets remain aggressive sellers at these lower levels. Read More...

February 16, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
A number of independent events put most commodities on the defensive last week, especially wheat, where global markets declined in unison. Read More...

February 14, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Surprising cancellations and disappointing export sales proved the tipping point for futures revealing underlying concerns of demand. Read More...

February 13, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA and CFTC continue to catch-up with data missed during the shutdown. By February 22, USDA will be current on reporting export sales but it will require until March 5 for CFTC to become current on trader-positions. Read More...

February 12,2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
The release of producer intentions for cotton acreage by the National Cotton Council has triggered aggressive selling of cotton futures amid the prospects for the largest ending carryout of U.S. cotton since 2008. Read More...

Februaary 11, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
To achieve USDA's wheat forecast will require the largest wheat movement out of storage in the 6-month period December-May than anytime in at least 3 years. It's one reason spreads are narrowing, removing the incentive to store wheat. Read More...

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