April 4, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Rather than provide additional data, it's a good time to review some of the recent newsletters as a reminder of the issues and concerns the market now grapples. Read More...

April 2, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
We examine the expectation expressed by many the larger-than-expected corn and cotton acreage intentions will shift to other crops reducing the supply burden. History of acreage shifts indicate caution is advised to those who expect material changes. Read More...

April 1, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Still reeling from larger-than-expected acreage intentions, today's weekly energy report highlighted the slowdown in corn for ethanol production. Corn futures are into rare price territory but fundamentals point to this as the likely new normal. Read More...

March 31, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Some big surprises in corn and cotton acreages were dismissed by many nearly as soon as USDA announced them. But it's clear producers intend to plant to full capacity if they can cover variable expense. There may be some shifts in final acreage but a decline in one crop's acreage likely means an increase for other crops. Read More...

March 30, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Following up to the weekend edition, we use a couple of methods to conclude an outlook for corn and soybean prices in crop year 2020/2021 based on expectations we have for ending supplies. Read More...

March 28, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
March will be known for the significant fundamental changes that have resulted from a combination of the global pandemic and the threat of a war for market share by Oil producing giants Saudi Arabia and Russia. No sector has felt the wrath more than the ethanol sector and the outlook for corn demand is changing rapidly in response. Read More...

March 26, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
We focus on the survey-based Planting Intentions report USDA will release next Tuesday. One variable is how much of the 14-16 million acres idled in 2019 due to wet conditions will return to production. Read More...

March 25, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
There's a mis-match of fresh beef supply and demand. The surge in retail demand now seems to be subsiding while the closures and lower traffic in the food service sector will require re-positioning of the nations beef supply. Read More...

March 24, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
We examine and establish estimates for the upcoming March 1 corn stocks report due on March 31. As is usually the case, corn for feed is the wild card. Read More...

March 23, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Just as the market thought they had averted two potentially crippling work stoppages at South American ports, hints that Russia may apply the brakes on wheat supply out of concern over high food inflation kept the market off-balance. Read More...

March 21, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
The U.S. administration put to rest some concerns regarding H-2A visas exempting agricultural workers from Mexico from current U.S. policy that closed the U.S. borders. But other concerns remain that have the possibility of reducing the labor necessary for nearly all areas of the U.S. agricultural sector. Read More...

March 19, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
It's been an event-packed, rumor-filled week with more questions than answers which lends itself to volatile, choppy markets. Read More...

March 18, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Following the Federal Reserve's most recent decision to reduce the fed funds rate to zero, we've seen the Dollar surge and many non-dollar currencies made record lows vs. the Dollar. There are unintended but adverse consequences from these policies. Read More...

March 17, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
We've often discussed our outlook and differences with USDA for corn and soybean exports in the current year. Today we apply our outlook to supply and demand balance sheets through the crop year ending 2021. Read More...

March 16, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
High-volatility invariably presents conflicting market signals and today's spot market for wholesale beef is an example where its value may not accurately reflect futures that look forward 60-90 days. Read More...

March 14, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Wide trading ranges each side of Thursday's close ended Friday with nearly all livestock futures down their daily limit. Concerns are surfacing on the 'what if' impact if wide-spread plant closings and staff shortages resulting from COVID-19 would have a similar effect on physical livestock values as the fire at Tyson's plant last fall. That plus uncertainty about demand are driving livestock futures. Read More...

March 12, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Whitney MacMillan, retired past Chairman of Cargill, passed away. I share my interactions with him, the mark he left on me, Cargill, and the industry. Read More...

March 11, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
It's unprecedented to have simultaneous supply and demand shocks but that's what has global oil markets in disarray and global oil companies scrambling to stay solvent in some cases. Read More...

March 10, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
In a rare monthly update, USDA's March supply and demand forecast had no major surprises. I'm surprised they didn't revise U.S. corn and soybean exports lower. Read More...

March 9, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Global oil futures and oil-related equities are caught in the cross-fire of the market-share war declared by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Bullish sentiment is at levels where previous major lows in Oil occurred but that may not be enough to rally oil yet. Read More...

March 6, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Following Thursday's focus on corn and soybean exports and prospects, we illustrate the weekly sales needed to achieve USDA's current forecasts. Read More...

March 5, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Evidence is mounting shedding doubt U.S. corn and soybean exports will meet current USDA forecasts. I lay out the case including more probable estimates. Read More...

March 3, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
The Federal Reserve made the first emergency rate-cut since the 2008 financial crisis. Despite the high-expectations a rate-cut would be forthcoming, financial markets reacted negatively to the notion the economy may be more at risk than previously thought. Read More...

March 2, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Given record supply of the 3 major proteins and evidence broiler expansion is set to rise further, U.S. livestock and poultry producers can ill-afford any disruption to processing, trade flow, or domestic demand that may arise from COVID-19. Read More...

February 29, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Focus on COVID-19 has taken the market's attention away from China's announcement 10 days ago they'll accept applications for tariff-exemptions beginning Monday. Signs exemptions may be granted could off-set otherwise dire economic evidence in China. Read More...

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