November 24, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
We're headed into a period when gasoline demand is the lowest of the year into January. Ethanol production to date is below the pace needed to make USDA's full-year forecast of corn for ethanol use. A strong recovery can still overcome the lag but, in the short run, another downward revision may be in the cards. Read More...

November 23, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
New recent highs in a handful of markets have the potential to close out the month at the highest levels in a number of years. Whether or not that occurs a week from today, it's useful to be reminded how unusual that would be. Read More...

November 21, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Three weeks after managed-money risk-positions peaked, the paring of risk has been minimal unlike most years following peak-risk. We examine what it may be following week #4 that ends Tuesday. Read More...

November 19,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Livestock futures were weak on heavy volume with hog futures possibly sharing my concern pork sales to China are slowing as the market looks ahead to 2021. Cattle on feed report is after the closing bell Friday. Read More...

November 18,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
The window for U.S. competitiveness in global soybean trade is narrowing each day closer to the South American harvest. That's nothing new but the comparative offering levels of U.S. vs. Brazilian soybeans puts the economics in perspective. Read More...

November 17, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Notions Brazil's soybean production may be slipping from continued dry weather collided with a trade organization predicting China will set a new soybean import record in 2021 served to lift soybean futures to the higest closing price in over 4 years. Read More...

November 16,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
The estimators of fund activity missed the mark by a wide margin but the actual risk-positions held by managed-money funds may be sending a message regarding the composite risk appetite all the same. Read More...

November 14, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Wholesale pork is down 20% in the past month in what is partly seasonal and partly attributed to slackening export demand. It's unclear the impact of Covid-19 on the nearterm but continued erosion will influence producer's plans as they respond to the quarterly intentions survey. Read More...

November 12,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Grain markets retreated quickly from Tuesday's enthusiastic embrace of USDA's surprising forecasts. Support levels are vulnerable in a number of crops but have yet to break important trend lines. Read More...

November 11, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
I analyze past peaks in managed-money fund length combining sentiment with comparisons to the current estimated record-level fund length and chart set-ups. Read More...

November 10, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Surprising yield revisions for corn and soybeans reduced supplies more than expected providing catalysts for rallies sending corn back into familiar territory and soybeans to a new high. Soybean supply is now a constraint for U.S. demand but record corn exports forecast is in contrast to the very slow start in export corn shipments. Read More...

November 9, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA updates grain and oilseed fundamentals Tuesday with pre-report consensus expecting slightly lower corn and soybean production and slightly larger demand. Read More...

November 7, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Market participants expect USDA to increase forecasted corn and soybean exports Tuesday. It's understandable given the record sales but lagging shipments by comparison to sales suggest it may be more a function of global buyer's behavior than simply larger demand. Read More...

November 5, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Corn and wheat began the day in a flurry but quickly lost momentum; typical price action following corrections as sellers re-emerge on rallies seizing a second-chance to sell. Read More...

November 4, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
In advance of next week's November USDA forecast, USDA's staff in the U.S. Embassy-Beijing submits their view of China's soybean import and crush demand for marketing year 2020/2021. Read More...

November 3,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Since I first wrote about the narrowing of China's wheat: corn spreads, demand for wheat supply auctioned from government stocks has grown significantly. It's not cooling off China's corn prices but it may be diminishing China's need to import corn. Read More...

November 2, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Although corn and soybean sales to date are each records, comparing actual shipments to date to the same period in 2016 when the first 5-months of the crop year set shipment records raises questions why corn shipments are 25% less to date. Read More...

November 1,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
China's progress in rebuilding their swine herd following the ASF outbreak 2 years ago has been faster than even they imagined. The implications are two-fold; China's reliance on pork imports will decline materially over the next 12 months and global swine numbers will need to adjust but China's recovery will enable a return to 'normal' growth in soy demand. Read More...

October 29, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Many are focused on corn sales to China and grousing over USDA's forecast but a closer examination of U.S. corn export sales indicates shipments to date are not reflecting the record overall sales. Sales to non-China destinations are lagging. Read More...

October 28, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Nobody has yet to devise a fool-proof way of providing advance warning of big market moves. In lieu of that, it's important to heed the subtle signs of vulnerability when markets become 'stretched'. Read More...

October 27,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Early rallies in corn and soybeans failed in their attempted breakout resulting in closes near the day's low. Follow through to the downside Wednesday would be impactful to the recent trend. Read More...

October 26,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Managed-money fund's current net long of the 5 main ag crops and products ranks #2 behind the record peak fund-positions of August 2012. We analyze the 5 peak positions, how they are similar and different to the present day. Read More...

October 21, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
China government owns an estimated 3.2 billion bushels wheat and the rally in domestic corn has the wheat/corn spread the most favorable toward feeding wheat in over 5 years. These two factors may open the door for China to more aggressively auction wheat stocks as a means to supplement tight corn supply and high corn prices. Read More...

October 20, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
I analyze Q1 corn producer marketing patterns similar to the soybean analysis of 2 weeks ago , adding price into the mix. Read More...

October 19, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Although the current focus on South America is on dry soil and delayed monsoons, similar La Nina years illustrate precipitation has improved significantly later in the same growing season. Read More...

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