January 15,2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Crude Oil set the pace on early gainers in 2022 with a combination of fundamental support and geopolitical risks providing the tailwind. Commodities have gained overall, led by Oil, but the strength is far from universal. Read More...

January 13, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Given an overnight to consider USDA's forecasts, the market opted to take some risk off the table with little compelling information in USDA's report to add to already sizeable long positions. In follow-up to the AM comments, I highlight soybeans. Read More...

January 12, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
In contrast to a year ago, there were few surprises and no game-changing balance sheets. Prices remained within recent ranges indicating new catalysts will be needed if prices are to move out of the recent ranges. Read More...

January 11,2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Expectations for downward revisions in South American soybean production has contributed to the $1+ rally since USDA's December forecast. But USDA has shown a reluctance to make significant changes for South America in Janaury forecasts and has a history of under-estimating at this stage of the production cycle relative to the final estimate. Read More...

January 10,2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Implied corn for feed demand and 2022 winter wheat acreage are two pieces I'll be watching in USDA's supply & demand update Wednesday. Read More...

January 8, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
The annual 5-day commodity index rebalancing is unique in that weight-changes up & down are known in advance enabling everybody except the indexers to 'prepare' . Read More...

January 6, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
With sales reported through December, we look at progress to date and relative to USDA's forecast for soybeans, corn, and cotton. Read More...

January 5, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Increased fertilizer prices has been one for the record books with values up more in the past 2 months than any prior year-over- year increase. It's changed expense budgets, revenue economics, and possibly producer acreage intentions but the final chapter is not yet written. Read More...

January 4, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
Friday begins 5-days of re-balancing for commodity indexers but added to that will be index roll for February contracts and probably new money from investors seeking exposure and diversification in commoditiies in 2022. Read More...

January 3, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
2022 markets got underway with no lack of volatility. Funds may be a little over-extended with large risk in certain markets. Read More...

January 2, 2022 - Author: Ken Morrison
2021 had more than a usual share of surprises. I feature my expectations of a few more surprises in store for 2022. Enjoy this look into the cloudy crystal ball. Read More...

December 22, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Thursday after the close comes the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs and monthly Cattle on Feed reports. If the report confirms pre-report estimates for hogs, it's a potential trend-changer. Estimates expect December 1 cattle inventory to match each of the past two December's. Read More...

December 21,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
There's a correlation of options expiries and volatility and contributing factors can be linked to options dealers hedging their risk as expiration draws near. Read More...

December 20, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
I contrast the year-end rallies of corn and soybeans a year ago to the present markets noting the set-ups,technically and fundamentally, are very different this year. Read More...

December 16,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Although U.S. soybean sales have improved recently, total sales to date are 25% below year ago levels in contrast to USDA's full-year forecast 8% below last year. The broad-based decline to China and non-China destinations raises a concern about global demand. Read More...

December 15, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
The FOMC delivered the adjustment to policy expected while increasing the inflation & U.S. employment outlook. Survey of the meeting participants expect 3 rate hikes in 2022, the market concensus expects the first hike in June. Read More...

December 14, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Improvements in roads, highways, and port capacities in recent years have all contributed to Brazil's growth in soybean and corn production with much of the cost-savings flowing into producer's pockets through higher cash prices and basis levels. Those factors are reasons Brazil's global share of soybean trade have risen. Read More...

December 13, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
A number of markets tested important support and resistance levels adding importance to the next 2-3 days price action that will establish the trend for those markets. Read More...

December 11, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Friday's headlines said it's the highest inflation since 1982. Everybody who remembers 1982 know that's where the similarities end. Read More...

December 9, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA opted to stand pat on their U.S. corn, soybean, and cotton forecasts essentially a cut-n-paste repeat from last month's forecast. The wheat forecast, U.S. and global, met our expectations but was not received well by the market. Read More...

December 8, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA's monthly forecast update is Thursday where a few tweaks can move markets and change trends. We've identified markets with potential to breakout and some that remain vulnerable to the downside where a bearish report could be the tipping point. Read More...

December 7, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
The official RVO proposals from EPA were announced today, very similar to those rumored on September 22. There will be public comment for 60 days and finalized in the coming months. Read More...

December 6, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Thursday brings USDA's monthly update of supply and demand with emphasis this month on demand. Given the recent weakness in wheat, it's most vulnerable to negative surprises. Relative to pre-report estimates, negative surprises should not be ruled out. Read More...

December 4, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
The price action the past 3 days of some major commodities suggest speculative traders concluded aggressive sales of the prior week were over-done, perhaps even unwarranted. The question in those markets do the fundamentals support the level of risk of 2 weeks ago. Read More...

December 2, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
December marks the unofficial start of producer-marketing meetings that attempt to provide perspective for the year ahead. A recent webinar discussing 2022 crop acreage left me wondering about the forecasted acreage that wasn't explained. Read More...

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