August 11, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
A recent surge in demand for beef by food retailers and institutions indicates high expectations of consumer demand for beef for the U.S. Labor Day holiday. But the surge was brief indicating uncertainty about the outlook beyond the summer-end holiday. Read More...

August 10, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
I update momentum indicators for several markets with a special focus on crops in advance of USDA's forecast Wednesday. Cotton particularly is at a crossroads. Read More...

August 9, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA's August forecast is widely expected to increase yield and production for corn and soybeans, a trend that's consistent with most August reports in recent years. Bearish response to the August forecast has also been the prevailing trend in recent years. Read More...

August 6, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Export sales through July have been finalized and cumulative sales of corn through end-July set a new record. Sales of corn and soybeans in July both set records. Despite the pace of sales, they are only 20-27% of the full-year forecast. I look at what sales in August may be. Read More...

August 5, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Given recent active export sales of U.S. soybeans and corn, it's easy to be lulled into thinking the U.S. is the one-stop shop. But aggressive sales of expected 2021 soybean production by Brazilian soy producers has triggered a record transfer of export trade from Brazil to China at this time of year weeks before the crop is planted. Read More...

August 4, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
New contract lows for corn and 2 classes of U.S. wheat plus weakness in the soy complex set a negative technical foundation for these crops. Compelled by evidence U.S. crop supply may increase from USDA's July forecast, we establish some downside price parameters. Read More...

August 3, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Private forecasters indicate a record Brazilian wheat crop may be possible when it's harvested October-November. The news put wheat futures on the defensive as a larger crop would reduce Brazil's import needs but it's something that may not be noticed for nearly a year. Read More...

August 1, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Gold set a record high and physical deliveries of gold in satisfaction of longs and shorts in August futures also set a new record. Although many attribute gold's strength to the weak dollar, I believe conditions that have created near risk-free yields trading gold spreads is a significant contributor to gold's strength. Read More...

July 30,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
2020 is on the verge of setting a record for the largest export volume new crop corn sales to date. Despite record demand, market participants are frustrated at the lack of price response. Spoiler Alert: It's more common than you may realize. Read More...

July 29, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Ethanol production had its best year-over-year comparison since mid-March declining 7% year over year following 3 weeks of 13% declines. But it failed to impress corn futures as the latter augers toward a re-test of the June low. Read More...

July 28, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Changes in supply, perceived and real, have held the upper hand of influence serving as catalysts for price changes in most crops the past 30 days. Read More...

July 27, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Crop markets have been marked by low volume and narrow ranges but improving crop conditions may be the catalyst to set the course for a change in prices. Read More...

July 25, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Recent reports on China's hog and sow inventory indicates the recovery may be progressing better than forecast. First half 2020 pork imports are slightly less than 50% the full-year forecast but the pace of herd re-building may also point toward lower second-half imports. Read More...

July 23, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Active new crop soybean sales for export have been encouraging and much better than a year ago. But viewed within the context of several years sales by now and projected demand, it's a reminder what we are seeing is rather normal. More importantly, if the demand forecasts are to be achieved, sales need to remain very active in the months ahead. Read More...

July 22, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Ethanol production and gasoline consumption each broke stride with recent trend improvements in the latest week attributed to the uptick in Covid-19 and resulting steps taken to limit the spread. Looking ahead into the fall, it's realistic to expect ethanol demand to be revised lower but to-date corn export sales should offset it. Read More...

July 21, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
The summer weather-rally in corn, @ 8 days so far, is the shortest-lived summer weather rally since 2014. The improved outlook in yields and supply has shifted from below-trend to at-trend or better resulting in a return of price-pressures. Read More...

July 20, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Congress and the White House are beginning negotiations on another big fiscal stimulus package. They are miles apart from agreement including how much they believe agriculture needs. Whatever will be resolved prior to the August recess, producers and their bankers should be planning for the day when record ad hoc payments won't be as prevalent. Read More...

July 18, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Cattle futures and Consumer Sentiment tend to move in the same direction but Friday's lower-than-expected consumer sentiment went unnoticed by the cattle markets. The week ahead may be a different outcome. Read More...

July 16, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Export sales of new crop soybeans and corn have become more active in the past 2 weeks with China notably picking up the pace. Sales to destinations other than China to-date are in line with recent years pace at this time. Read More...

July 15, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
We're at the stage of crop development where yields can go either direction. If 2011 is an example, conditions of mid-July can change quickly by harvest. Read More...

July 14, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Another record corn sale to China failed to lift corn futures in a market pre-occupied by weather. But China sees value in imported corn prices by comparison to domestic prices in China. With their supply in good balance, it's possible they may exceed USDA's import corn forecast. Read More...

July 13,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Despite rising tensions between the U.S. and China, sales of U.S. ag products show no evidence that politics are standing in the way of trade. That could change if China decides the U.S. has crossed the line on meddling in sovereign affairs as today's U.S. stance on China's claim on South China Sea territory. Read More...

July 11,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
With USDA's July forecast behind us, a snapshot of fundamentals are now known and crop markets can revert to domination by weather. Read More...

July 9, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
I discuss some tendencies of USDA's approach to balance sheet revisions especially relevant for Friday's report. Read More...

July 8, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA will update and revise supply and demand for crops Friday using much of the data from the surprising June 30 reports. Count on a couple surprises. Read More...

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