May 6, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
In this third and final installment, I look at the 2021/2022 forecasts from USDA staff in overseas offices that may (or may not) influence USDA's global forecast on May 12. Read More...

May 5, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Following on Tuesday's theme, we look at the global wheat outlook from the perspective of USDA's overseas attaches. Read More...

May 4, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Based on forecasts submitted by numerous USDA staff in overseas posts, I compare their outlook for 2021/2022 in their respective countries of responsibility to USDA's current year forecasts. It may provide some guidance on USDA's first 2021/2022 forecast on May 12. Read More...

May 3, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
One day does not make or break trends but a price-action in a single day can provide useful clues about the potential direction. Read More...

May 1, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Judging by past record-positions held by managed-money funds in grain and oilseeds, current risk-appetite does not show the extreme speculation one should expect when risk-appetite to be long is near a peak. Read More...

April 29,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Effective Monday, CME Group will expand the daily price limits for grain and soy as part of their twice-annual review of prices that has been in place since 2014. Read More...

April 28,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Trends and trend-changes are processes that take time and certain steps to complete. Recent price action indicates corn is entering the fourth stage of a 5-stage process. Read More...

April 27, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Lumber, 4x the value of a year ago, is getting a lot of attention as the leading commodity gainer. A concentrated market dominated by a few producers and lumber dealers, there are limited substitutes for lumber in home construction. Read More...

April 26, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Prices reached levels not seen since 2013 or 2014. Soy oil set the bar touching 2011 levels. Markets are at or close to important resistance and with USDA's first forecast for 2021/2022 coming soon, it's a good time to consider the next catalyst and what may derail the strength. Read More...

April 24, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
The week's gains in corn and winter wheat were among the few weeks of similar strength of the past 12 years. Soybean strength had nothing like it for that same period. That the strength occurred on breakouts is also unique and may signal more strength lies ahead. Read More...

April 22, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Ever compare prices to a year ago? For the month of April, year-over-year gains in front-month corn and soybean contracts have never been better for at least 20 years. Read More...

April 21, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
As the market focuses on weather issues, USDA's attache in Beijing issues an outlook that may dampen enthusiasm for demand in 2021/2022. Read More...

April 20, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
By virtue of the rally in crop prices, the market is attempting to 'find' acreage that appeared to be missing from the March planting intentions. Read More...

April 19, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Recent dryness will most likely lead to a downward revision in Brazil's corn production with implications for Q4 U.S. exports. Read More...

April 17, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Managed-money funds have held a consistently bullish outlook for corn building their net-long over 400,000-contracts, the largest since early 2011. Read More...

April 15, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
A timely and informative report from Reuters hightlighting the extent of wheat-substitution for corn and soymeal in China's hog and poultry rations provides clues about USDA's initial 2021/2022 supply and demand forecast scheduled for May 12. Read More...

April 14, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Thursday's report of March soybean crush by NOPA could be a market mover for the soy complex if the variance vs. expectations is similar to February's surprise. Read More...

April 13, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
In anticipation of USDA's initial forecast for 2021/2022 crop year on May 12, I look at current futures with comparisons to past years to identify important resistance and support levels. Read More...

April 12, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
The narrative of the need for large soybean acreage prior to the planting intentions has yielded to lower soybean prices and more favorable revenue prospects for corn. Read More...

April 10,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
To better understand USDA's rationale, it's helpful to read and analyze the Global reports issued simultaneously with every month's supply/demand update. It provides insights why they may appear to be reluctant to increase corn imports for China despite known sales that far exceed USDA's forecast. Read More...

April 8, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Strength in corn in advance of Friday's USDA report is a repeat of last week, each one raising expectations the moves will be the pathway to a new trading range higher. But last week's rally failed to hold. USDA's report may hold the key whether today's rally has different results. Read More...

April 7, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA updates supply and demand Friday incorporating the March stocks report and any demand revisions they deem necessary. Pre-report estimates appear cautious and benign. Expect surprises. Read More...

April 6, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
The latest monthly survey of 400 agricultural producers conducted jointly by Purdue University and the CME Group illustrates a contrast in change of producer's outlook over the past 12 months. The correlation to market price trends is unmistakable. Read More...

April 5, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Winter wheat acreage was more than expected; corn and soybeans less than expected but the timing of winter wheat producer's decisions and prevailing prices of alternative crops at the time need to be considered to better understand the outcomes. Read More...

April 3, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Managed-money funds actively reduced long-exposure to soybeans and soy oil and shifted from long to short in wheat in advance of USDA's stocks and planting intentions. Thursday's price action seemed more aligned with the pre-report positioning than Wednesday's strong price response to USDA's reports. Read More...

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