June 18, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Bullish trending markets reach a point when they require fresh bullish inputs to keep the momentum going. The task is made more difficult when bullish sentiment is at or near extremely high levels. Read More...

June 17, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Although meeting expectations for the week, corn planting progress @ 92% complete is the all-time lowest for this time. Soybean planting progress fell short of expectations @ 77% , not a record but leaves @ 19.5 million acres to plant to meet producer's March expectations. Read More...

June 15, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Since funds trading corn set their record net short April 23, they've been major buyers of corn propelling it over $1 bushel from the May 13 low. But it's telling well over 80% of the buying has been short-covering indicating the professional speculators have not embraced the notion long-corn is a favorable risk. Read More...

June 13, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Increasing expectations of $5 corn illustrate the uncertainty of corn acreage. We look at past years when USDA took the unusual step of revising acreage in mid-June and compare them to the producer-survey intentions that followed them 2-3 weeks later. Read More...

June 11, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA delivered the largest revision ever to a June supply/demand update. It may not have met the expectations of many but it's now a benchmark by which to measure the crop's progress in the weeks and months ahead. Read More...

June 10, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
U.S. corn and soybean planting progress continue to set new records and near-records for the slowest planting season since USDA began compiling the data. We'll find out Tuesday if that translates to historic revisions in USDA's acreage or yield forecasts. Read More...

June 8, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Thursday's newsletter focused on the supply side expectations for USDA's upcoming forecast. Part II looks at expectations for demand revisions. Read More...

June 6, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Numerous opinions about corn and soybean acreage and yields are making the rounds in advance of next Tuesday's updated supply and demand update. I expect USDA to make revisions similar to the conditions in 1995. Read More...

May 30, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Rising feed costs and concerns about this year's hay supply have teamed up to pressure feeder and live cattle futures to new contract lows and narrow feeder cattle's premium to deferred live cattle futures. Read More...

May 29, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
With net-fund risk positions in corn near neutral and corn producers having liquidated much of their physical inventory, the two major players in the recent corn rally are now determining the next risk:reward. The answer may reside in the future status of U.S. corn acreage. Read More...

May 28, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
It's easy to get wrapped up in the historic delayed U.S. planting progress but exportable corn and soybean supplies in South America provide an off-set to shrinking U.S. production. The widening premium of U.S. grain and soybeans will send global buyers elsewhere shrinking the U.S. demand base. Read More...

May 27, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Two important human market-behaviors were evident recently; fear of losing and fear of missing out. But risks have been reduced for each side of those acting upon those behaviors. The market may be challenged to reach the next level unless those behaviors reverse. Read More...

May 23, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA rolled out some details on the $16 Billion aid to agricultural producers that expands the number of eligible commodities to 30 from 9 on MFP 1.0. Crop producers must plant to be eligible to collect payments that may not be known until well beyond a reasonable planting date. In that sense, USDA may have avoided influencing acreage decisions. Read More...

May 22, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Memorial Day weekend marks the traditional beginning of the U.S. summer driving season when demand for fuel and thus crude oil rises. But several signs point toward heavy supplies and price weakness ahead. Read More...

May 21, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Bloomberg's report USDA is close to announcing details for MFP 2.0, including specific payment rates for soybeans, corn, and wheat; pressured soybeans to a new recent low vs. corn. Everybody awaits USDA details. Read More...

May 20, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Corn planting progress @ 49% complete is the lowest level in USDA records dating to the 1980 beginning of the weekly report. Expect an active debate on likely yields and acreage that will be lost to Prevent Planting. Read More...

May 18, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
The events of the week seemed like a 30-day supply with concerns about spring crop acreage taking precedent over trade relations and sluggish demand. Read More...

May 16, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Prevent Plant (PP) will be a big part of the crop market lexicon over the next few weeks as deadline dates to qualify for insurance coverage force complex decisions for acreage. Read More...

May 15, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Given the attention from resolving the trade issues with China is now focused on trade-aid, we look at some of the considerations that may effect the size and timing of the aid. Read More...

May 14, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Following up with the author of USDA's headline paper on the cumulative impact of ASF on China's soy demand, we share USDA's explanation of their assumptions and conclusion. Read More...

May 13, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA's report Friday made a point to emphasize the impact of ASF on soybean trade with China. Read More...

May 11, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
U.S. -China talks overshadowed USDA's supply and demand update with the two sides appearing further apart than has been publicly revealed before now. The U.S. plans to reveal the new list of proposed tariffs that could shape China's promise for retaliation. Read More...

May 9, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
U.S. and China began the day exchanging threats of new tariffs and weekly export sales for corn and soybeans fell short of expectations, the day's worst possible combination. Read More...

May 8, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
We continue our analysis and expectations for USDA's supply and demand forecast looking at their first attempt at 2019/2020. Read More...

May 7, 2019 - Author: Ken Morrison
Although the current focus is on planting-weather and trade talks, attention should be paid to possible revisions USDA will make on Friday with implications for grain, soy, and cotton supplies. Read More...

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