January 16,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Having updated corn and soybean sales through December, the lag in corn shipments relative to sales stands out. It raises concern sales to China are a potential risk if the allocation of low-tariff import quota is insufficient to accommodate purchase commitments by China's corn import-buyers. Read More...

January 14, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
September corn futures function more as a new crop contract and is little protection for physical corn supply in years of tight supply. As such it tends to converge to the value of the December contract as it approaches September 1. It may provide hedging opportunities. Read More...

January 13,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Feeding margins have been under pressure throughout the rally in corn and soy. The ralliy the past 30 days has pressured feeding margins to levels not seen since 2013. Read More...

January 12,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
The revisions in the U.S. corn supply since August are unprecedented and the surprises continued today. I summarize the changes, their implications, and the market's response with comparisons to prior year's of tight supply. Read More...

January 11,2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA's January forecast-update Tuesday may have implications for 2021 crop prices and relative values among competing crops. We take our first look at net-revenues for 2021 corn, soybeans, and cotton. Read More...

January 9, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Estimators of fund activity expected a record net-long for the week ending January 5 but missed it by a wide mark. But which market participants have been most active? I analyze that question today. Read More...

January 7, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Total soybean stocks on December 1 are expected to have been the smallest since 2015 but I expect supply in the hands of commercials may have been similar to each of the past 3 years. Read More...

January 6, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
U.S. soybean and corn supplies are tighter than has been the case in 6-7 years and price is one means of rationing limited supplies. But there are other ways to stretch supplies that are beginning to play out with some effect. Read More...

January 5, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
One of the most memorable commodity rallies occurred in 2008. But notable changes in global markets and the manner in which investors desiring exposure to commodities have changed considerably. Read More...

January 4, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Corn ended its string of 14 consecutive days rally today with risk-positions held by speculators setting a record high. Read More...

January 2, 2021 - Author: Ken Morrison
Continuing the tradition, the first edition each year announces the Market Contest winners, reviews the prior year's Fearless Forecasts, and Fearlessly Forecasts selected markets for 2021.2021. Read More...

December 26, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
The annual rebalancing of major commodity indexes occurs in early January which is often a time when new money is committed by passive investors desiring exposure to commodities. Despite persistent commodity rallies the past few months, there's no compelling evidence passive investors have committed significant new capital to grain or oilseeds. Read More...

December 23, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Corn and Soymeal have closed higher 9 consecutive days, a first since at least 2008 for soymeal and only the fourth such string for corn in the same period. Three of corn's rallies have been the same period in December and I illustrate each one for possible similarities in chart patterns. Read More...

December 22,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA will publish December 1 hogs and pigs inventory following the market's close Wednesday. Wide estimates of inventory for the top 2 weight categories increases the risk for a surprise with market-moving potential. Read More...

December 21,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
If soybeans close higher this month as appears likely, it will mark the seventh consecutive month to do so and would match the 2007/2008 string of higher monthly closes as the longest streak in at least 20 years. Read More...

December 19,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
China's leadership concluded a 3-day policy meeting setting a priority to adopt biotech corn and soybean seed technology to bolster food security and reduce reliance on imports. This is a change resulting out of need but one that was inevitable after years of China's investment in seed research and development. Read More...

December 17, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
An inverse correlation exists with Commodities and the Dollar. The most important time to be aware of that relationship is when sentiment for the Dollar is at an extreme. Read More...

December 16,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
U.S. gasoline consumption continues to trend lower by comparison to year ago levels and, in turn, is constraining corn for ethanol demand. The trend is unlikely to change soon increasing the risk USDA revises full-year corn for ethanol use lower in the January report. Read More...

December 15, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
It's the time of year when producers begin thinking about crop plans and lining up working capital for the next planting season. I look at variable costs over the past 5-6 years and improving yields that have held cost/unit of output in check. Read More...

December 14, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Russian government confirmed last week's rumors establishing a 25 Euro/ton ($31) tax on wheat exports February 15-June 30 coinciding with the previously announced grain export quota. Now the markets can begin to adjust to the intervention beginning with Tuesday's planned tender by Egypt. Read More...

December 12, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
Rumors of Russia intervention in their wheat market in an effort to cool food-inflation injected new uncertainty into global wheat markets. We've seen this playbook before and discuss possible implications if Russia opts to run the play again. Read More...

December 10, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA's revisions fell slightly short of market participant's expectations and the disappointment was manifested by erasing early gains in corn and soybeans. Read More...

December 9,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
The weekly energy reports on ethanol production, gasoline demand, and rising inventories offered little encouragement and hints Covid-19 is taking a toll on driving and the economy. Read More...

December 8, 2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
USDA will report updated forecasts for grain and oilseeds Thursday when minimal revisions are expected. Read More...

December 7,2020 - Author: Ken Morrison
5 weeks after funds hit their peak net-long, they've pared risk only sparingly by comparison to most peak-positions since 2007. But trends in most of the markets they are most exposed are weakening and surely testing their resolve. Read More...

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